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Vietnam vs Thailand

Asia Asia

ASEAN Championship 2024 Việt Trì Stadium, Việt Trì
Our Tip

Match Events

11'
Hemviboon P.
45'
Sub
Pumwisat A. In: Pomphan W.
Out: Pumwisat A.
46'
Sub
Bui Vi Hao In: Nguyen Quang Hai
Out: Bui Vi Hao

AI Match Summary

This match ends 2-1, with Vietnam advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

52%
Vietnam
20%
Draws
28%
Thailand
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Vietnam

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Vietnam come out ahead of Thailand on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Vietnam's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Vietnam have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Thailand, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Vietnam Clean Sheet 68%
Thailand Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Vietnam Thailand
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 27 19
Draws 3 4
Losses 0 7
Goals Scored 2.77 2.33
Goals Conceded 0.5 1
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 26, 2026 ASEAN Championship
Vietnam vs Thailand
2:2
Aug 22, 2026 ASEAN Championship
Thailand vs Vietnam
0:2
Jan 5, 2025 ASEAN Championship
Thailand vs Vietnam
2:3
Jan 2, 2025 ASEAN Championship
Vietnam vs Thailand
2:1
Sep 10, 2024 Friendly International
Vietnam vs Thailand
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Vietnam Compare

Top Goalscorer Bezerra R.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Thailand Compare

Top Goalscorer Aukkee C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vietnam 95 / 100
Thailand 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Vietnam Thailand

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Vietnam Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Vietnam scored in 97% of their last 30 outings.

These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.

Vietnam went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Thailand has conceded goals in 57% of their last 30 outings.

Scoring Trends

Vietnam VS Thailand
3.38 Goals Scored 2
0.38 Goals Conceded 0.63
88% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Vietnam

(Home)
26 Aug
Vietnam
2 : 2
Thailand
22 Aug
Thailand
0 : 2
Vietnam
19 Aug
Vietnam
2 : 0
Malaysia
16 Aug
Malaysia
0 : 2
Vietnam
07 Aug
Vietnam
3 : 1
Cambodia
Page 1 of 6

Thailand

(Away)
26 Aug
Vietnam
2 : 2
Thailand
22 Aug
Thailand
0 : 2
Vietnam
18 Aug
Thailand
1 : 2
Singapore
15 Aug
Singapore
1 : 3
Thailand
08 Aug
Thailand
2 : 0
Myanmar
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Singapore 1
Vietnam 5
Philippines 3
Thailand 4
Final
Vietnam 5
Thailand 3