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Vigasio vs FC Obermais - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group C 2025/2026
Sun, May 17, 2026
2 - 3
02:00 PM
Our Tip

Match Events

23' Event
Moras M.
(Penalty)
38' Event
Brusco M.
82' Event
Moras M.

AI Match Summary

FC Obermais in this Serie D - Group C 2025/2026 tie, finishing 2-3. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Vigasio
20%
Draws
50%
FC Obermais
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: FC Obermais

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to FC Obermais lately — more wins on the board than Vigasio.
  • 36% — that's where the model lands on Vigasio taking it.
  • FC Obermais arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor FC Obermais, who have won 1 of the last 3 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • FC Obermais have won 2 of the last 3 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Vigasio Clean Sheet 11%
FC Obermais Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Vigasio FC Obermais
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 6 8
Draws 11 11
Losses 13 10
Goals Scored 1.33 1.17
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.24
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.79
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 17, 2026 Serie D - Group C
Vigasio vs FC Obermais
2:3
Jan 18, 2026 Serie D - Group C
FC Obermais vs Vigasio
2:0
Sep 21, 2025 Serie D - Group C
Vigasio vs FC Obermais
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Vigasio Compare

Top Goalscorer Moras M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

FC Obermais Compare

Top Goalscorer Brusco M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Turini S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.63
Avg xA / game 0.99

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vigasio 35 / 100
FC Obermais 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Vigasio FC Obermais

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.33 goals per match.

Vigasio scored in 73% of their last 30 games.

FC Obermais has conceded goals in 66% of their last 29 outings.

Vigasio went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Vigasio VS FC Obermais
1 Goals Scored 1.38
2.2 Goals Conceded 1
60% Over 1.5 75%
60% Over 2.5 38%
60% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Vigasio

(Home)
17 May
Vigasio
2 : 3
FC Obermais
03 May
Vigasio
1 : 4
Legnago Salus
26 Apr
Luparense FC
1 : 0
Vigasio
19 Apr
Vigasio
1 : 3
Brian Lignano
12 Apr
Clodiense
0 : 1
Vigasio
Page 1 of 6

FC Obermais

(Away)
04 Oct
Triestina
2 : 0
FC Obermais
27 Sept
FC Obermais
2 : 2
Mestre
20 Sept
Conegliano
1 : 0
FC Obermais
16 Sept
FC Obermais
1 : 1
Lavarian Mortean Esperia
13 Sept
Este
0 : 1
FC Obermais
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
Vigasio 2
FC Obermais 3