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Vigor Senigallia vs Ostiamare

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group F 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

65' Event
Cardella F.
90' Event
Tomba A.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

52%
Vigor Senigallia
20%
Draws
28%
Ostiamare
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Vigor Senigallia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Vigor Senigallia haven't matched Ostiamare's recent run of results.
  • 52% — that's where the model lands on Vigor Senigallia taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.8%
Vigor Senigallia Clean Sheet 68%
Ostiamare Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Vigor Senigallia Ostiamare
Matches Played 30 33
Wins 14 17
Draws 11 6
Losses 5 10
Goals Scored 1.63 1.67
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.12
Expected Goals (xG) 2.02 0.65
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 25, 2026 Serie D - Group F
Vigor Senigallia vs Ostiamare
1:1
Sep 24, 2025 Serie D - Group F
Ostiamare vs Vigor Senigallia
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Vigor Senigallia Compare

Top Goalscorer Tomba A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.55
Avg xA / game 1.01

Ostiamare Compare

Top Goalscorer Cardella F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.59
Avg xA / game 0.36

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vigor Senigallia 77 / 100
Ostiamare 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Vigor Senigallia Ostiamare

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Vigor Senigallia Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Vigor Senigallia scored in 83% of their last 30 outings.

Recent resilience: Vigor Senigallia stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Ostiamare's defensive record shows goals conceded in 67% of 33 matches.

Historical meetings average 1.50 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Vigor Senigallia VS Ostiamare
1.67 Goals Scored 0.63
0.67 Goals Conceded 2.38
50% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
17% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Vigor Senigallia

(Home)
27 Sept
Vigor Senigallia
0 : 0
Fossombrone
20 Sept
Termoli
1 : 2
Vigor Senigallia
16 Sept
Lanciano FC
1 : 2
Vigor Senigallia
13 Sept
Vigor Senigallia
1 : 0
Giulianova
06 Sept
Sporting Trestina
2 : 5
Vigor Senigallia
Page 1 of 6

Ostiamare

(Away)
27 Sept
Ostiamare
1 : 1
Forli FC
20 Sept
Gubbio
0 : 2
Ostiamare
16 Sept
Ostiamare
0 : 1
Ravenna
13 Sept
Sassari Torres
3 : 2
Ostiamare
05 Sept
Vis Pesaro
1 : 2
Ostiamare
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ostiamare 34 24 7 3 65:25 79
2 Ancona 34 23 7 4 59:22 76
3 Teramo 34 21 11 2 65:29 74
4 Atletico Ascoli 34 14 13 7 55:35 55
5 Notaresco Calcio 34 13 12 9 43:31 51
6 Aquila Calcio 34 14 9 11 53:44 51
7 Giulianova 34 11 16 7 40:31 49
8 Vigor Senigallia 34 12 13 9 45:40 49
9 Fossombrone 34 11 11 12 28:34 44
10 Unipomezia 34 10 12 12 43:42 42
11 Termoli 34 8 15 11 27:30 39
12 Maceratese 34 11 5 18 43:49 38
13 AS Sora 34 9 11 14 40:50 38
14 Recanatese 34 8 8 18 39:57 32
15 San Marino Calcio 34 8 7 19 33:61 31
16 Calcio Chieti 34 8 11 15 31:55 24
17 Castelfidardo 34 6 5 23 30:65 23
18 Sammaurese 34 5 7 22 30:69 20
Promotion - Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 (Play Out)