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Vigor Senigallia vs Tivoli Calcio - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group F 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

2' Event
Capezzani L.
8' Event
Capezzani L.
65' Event
Pesaresi D.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group F 2023/2024 game between Vigor Senigallia and Tivoli Calcio finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Vigor Senigallia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

53%
Vigor Senigallia
15%
Draws
32%
Tivoli Calcio
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Vigor Senigallia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

53% / Medium Confidence
  • Tivoli Calcio haven't matched Vigor Senigallia's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Vigor Senigallia's way, sitting at 60%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.6%
Vigor Senigallia Clean Sheet 68%
Tivoli Calcio Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Vigor Senigallia Tivoli Calcio
Matches Played 37 31
Wins 15 8
Draws 13 7
Losses 9 16
Goals Scored 1.73 1.16
Goals Conceded 1.24 1.68
Expected Goals (xG) 1.35 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 10, 2024 Serie D - Group F
Vigor Senigallia vs Tivoli Calcio
3:0
Nov 1, 2023 Serie D - Group F
Tivoli Calcio vs Vigor Senigallia
0:5

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Vigor Senigallia Compare

Top Goalscorer Capezzani L.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Pesaresi D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.04
Avg xA / game 0.68

Tivoli Calcio Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vigor Senigallia 68 / 100
Tivoli Calcio 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Vigor Senigallia Tivoli Calcio

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Vigor Senigallia Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Vigor Senigallia found the back of the net in 81% of recent matches (37 games).

Historical meetings average 4.00 goals per match.

Tivoli Calcio has conceded goals in 77% of their last 31 outings.

Vigor Senigallia went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Vigor Senigallia VS -
1.5 Goals Scored 0
1.25 Goals Conceded 0
75% Over 1.5 0%
50% Over 2.5 0%
50% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Vigor Senigallia

(Home)
04 Oct
Teramo
6 : 4
Vigor Senigallia
27 Sept
Vigor Senigallia
0 : 0
Fossombrone
20 Sept
Termoli
1 : 2
Vigor Senigallia
16 Sept
Lanciano FC
1 : 2
Vigor Senigallia
13 Sept
Vigor Senigallia
1 : 0
Giulianova
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Tivoli Calcio

(Away)
12 May
Tivoli Calcio
2 : 3
United Riccione
05 May
Tivoli Calcio
1 : 0
Fossombrone
28 Apr
Vastogirardi
1 : 4
Tivoli Calcio
21 Apr
Tivoli Calcio
1 : 2
Avezzano
14 Apr
AS Sora
5 : 0
Tivoli Calcio
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Campobasso 34 20 10 4 55:29 70
2 Aquila Calcio 34 20 8 6 40:22 68
3 Avezzano 34 17 8 9 50:33 59
4 Sambenedettese 34 15 13 6 57:36 58
5 Roma City 34 14 10 10 56:37 52
6 Atletico Ascoli 34 12 14 8 39:33 50
7 Vigor Senigallia 34 13 10 11 57:50 49
8 Calcio Chieti 34 12 12 10 35:34 48
9 Notaresco Calcio 34 11 12 11 37:38 45
10 Termoli 34 11 10 13 30:36 43
11 Fossombrone 34 8 17 9 28:28 41
12 AS Sora 34 10 11 13 37:37 41
13 Real Monterotondo 34 12 5 17 42:60 41
14 Tivoli Calcio 34 10 7 17 38:55 37
15 United Riccione 34 10 7 17 48:51 37
16 Fano 34 6 14 14 35:49 32
17 Vastogirardi 34 7 8 19 26:51 29
18 Matese 34 6 8 20 20:51 26
Promotion - Serie D - Group F 2023/2024 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group F 2023/2024 (Play Out)