Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Vila Nova FC vs America MG

Brazil Brazil

Serie B Estádio Onésio Brasileiro Alvarenga, Goiânia
Our Tip

Match Events

14' Event
Andre Luis
32'
Sub
Guilherme Parede In: Segovia M.
Out: Guilherme Parede
62'
Higor

AI Match Summary

The Serie B game between Vila Nova FC and America MG finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Vila Nova FC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

53%
Vila Nova FC
15%
Draws
32%
America MG
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Vila Nova FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

53% / Medium Confidence
  • Vila Nova FC carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 53% — that's where the model lands on Vila Nova FC taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Vila Nova FC Clean Sheet 68%
America MG Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Vila Nova FC America MG
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 16 7
Draws 5 5
Losses 9 19
Goals Scored 1.37 0.97
Goals Conceded 1 1.65
Expected Goals (xG) 1.94 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 18, 2026 Serie B
Vila Nova FC vs America MG
1:0
May 24, 2026 Serie B
America MG vs Vila Nova FC
1:2
Oct 9, 2025 Serie B
America MG vs Vila Nova FC
1:1
Jun 13, 2025 Serie B
Vila Nova FC vs America MG
0:3
Aug 25, 2024 Serie B
Vila Nova FC vs America MG
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Vila Nova FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Andre Luis
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.49
Avg xA / game 0.97

America MG Compare

Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vila Nova FC 50 / 100
America MG 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Vila Nova FC America MG

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Vila Nova FC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

America MG's defensive record shows goals conceded in 87% of 31 matches.

Vila Nova FC's goal record stands at 70% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Solid form: Vila Nova FC remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Vila Nova FC VS America MG
1.75 Goals Scored 0.88
0.75 Goals Conceded 2.13
75% Over 1.5 100%
25% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Vila Nova FC

(Home)
25 Sept
Vila Nova FC
2 : 0
Londrina
18 Sept
Vila Nova FC
1 : 0
America MG
15 Sept
Avai
1 : 1
Vila Nova FC
10 Sept
Vila Nova FC
2 : 0
Goias
04 Sept
Athletic Club
5 : 0
Vila Nova FC
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America MG

(Away)
18 Sept
Vila Nova FC
1 : 0
America MG
14 Sept
America MG
0 : 2
Sao Bernardo
09 Sept
America MG
2 : 1
Nautico
05 Sept
CRB
3 : 1
America MG
30 Aug
America MG
2 : 0
Ponte Preta
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vila Nova FC 30 16 6 8 43:31 54
2 EC Juventude 30 15 8 7 32:19 53
3 Fortaleza 30 14 10 6 35:26 52
4 Novorizontino 30 14 9 7 49:27 51
5 Criciuma 30 14 8 8 31:27 50
6 Atletico GO 30 13 10 7 37:27 49
7 CRB 30 14 6 10 45:41 48
8 Operario-PR 30 13 9 8 43:38 48
9 Sport Recife 30 11 11 8 40:32 44
10 Cuiaba 30 10 13 7 30:25 43
11 Goias 30 12 6 12 30:36 42
12 Sao Bernardo 30 11 9 10 40:31 42
13 Athletic Club 30 10 12 8 36:33 42
14 Nautico 30 11 8 11 38:37 41
15 Ceara 30 9 9 12 33:39 36
16 Botafogo SP 29 8 8 13 32:36 32
17 Avai 30 8 6 16 30:41 30
18 Londrina 30 7 7 16 39:43 28
19 America MG 30 4 5 21 21:50 17
20 Ponte Preta 29 3 4 22 17:62 13
Promotion - Serie A Betano 2027 (Main)
Promotion - Serie B (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie C 2027 (First stage)