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Vila Nova FC vs Sao Bernardo

Brazil Brazil

Serie B Estádio Onésio Brasileiro Alvarenga
Our Tip

Match Events

23' Event
Marquinhos Gabriel
Assist: Higor
48'
Foguinho
52' Event
Hyoran

AI Match Summary

Vila Nova FC in this Serie B matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Vila Nova FC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
Vila Nova FC
22%
Draws
18%
Sao Bernardo
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Vila Nova FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • Sao Bernardo haven't matched Vila Nova FC's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Vila Nova FC a 60% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
Vila Nova FC Clean Sheet 68%
Sao Bernardo Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Vila Nova FC Sao Bernardo
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 14 10
Draws 8 8
Losses 8 11
Goals Scored 1.5 1.13
Goals Conceded 1.13 0.88
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 6, 2026 Serie B
Vila Nova FC vs Sao Bernardo
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Vila Nova FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Marquinhos Gabriel
1 Goals
Assists Leader Janderson
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Sao Bernardo Compare

Top Goalscorer Hyoran
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vila Nova FC 68 / 100
Sao Bernardo 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Vila Nova FC Sao Bernardo

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick VIL Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Vila Nova FC's goal record stands at 73% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Sao Bernardo's defensive record shows goals conceded in 72% of 29 matches.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Vila Nova FC went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Vila Nova FC VS Sao Bernardo
1.5 Goals Scored 1.13
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.88
63% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Criciuma1796220:1233
2Vila Nova FC1794425:1931
3Operario-PR1794422:1831
4Novorizontino1786328:1630
5EC Juventude1785417:829
6Fortaleza1784520:1728
7Sao Bernardo1775523:1626
8Sport Recife1768321:1526
9Goias1774618:2325
10Atletico GO1766519:1924
11Cuiaba1759314:1124
12Athletic Club1758416:1623
13Nautico1763821:2121
14Botafogo SP1755720:1820
15CRB1755726:3120
16Londrina1754825:2519
17Ceara1746715:2018
18Avai1744918:2416
19Ponte Preta17221311:338
20America MG17141211:287