Sport Picks

Portugal

Liga Portugal 2 2022/2023 Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior

SC Farense

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Risks Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

This Liga Portugal 2 2022/2023 encounter between Vilafranquense and SC Farense promises to be a closely contested affair, with win probabilities pointing to an even matchup. Vilafranquense averages 1.0 goals scored and 1.1 conceded in recent matches. SC Farense shows a form average of 0.9 goals scored and 1.1 conceded. Given their contrasting recent form profiles, this matchup is expected to produce a balanced tactical flow. Historical head-to-head records show 0 wins for Vilafranquense, 3 wins for SC Farense, and 2 draws in their recent direct meetings. Their last direct encounter on 11.03.23 ended in a 1:1 scoreline. Our model projects an expected goals (xG) output of 1.54 for Vilafranquense and 0.99 for SC Farense, suggesting the primary value lies in the SC Farense double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%

Vilafranquense

35%

Draws

34%

SC Farense

Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: SC Farense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence

Vilafranquense picked up more points recently compared to SC Farense.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.54 vs 0.99 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 65%

Over 2.5 Goals 35%

Over 3.5 Goals 21%

Over 4.5 Goals 11%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 41%

Vilafranquense Clean Sheet 23%

SC Farense Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 59%

Second Half Goal 62%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Vilafranquense	SC Farense
Matches Played	30	31
Wins	7	8
Draws	12	10
Losses	11	13
Goals Scored	1.03	0.87
Goals Conceded	1.07	1.1

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

11.03.23 Liga Portugal 2

Vilafranquense vs SC Farense

Possession: 56% - 50% Cards: 1 - 2

1:1

18.09.22 Liga Portugal 2

SC Farense vs Vilafranquense

Possession: 41% - 49% Cards: 3 - 0

2:1

27.02.22 Liga Portugal 2

SC Farense vs Vilafranquense

Possession: 56% - 56% Cards: 3 - 0

1:0

03.10.21 Liga Portugal 2

Vilafranquense vs SC Farense

Possession: 52% - 49% Cards: 0 - 0

2:2

21.02.20 Liga Portugal 2

Vilafranquense vs SC Farense

Possession: 40% - 59% Cards: 3 - 4

0:3

Tactical Matchup Profile

Field Positions & Control Styles

Vilafranquense

Pressing Intensity Medium Block

Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks

Wing Attack Frequency Play through the middle

Defensive Alignment Sit deep

Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

SC Farense

Pressing Intensity Medium Block

Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks

Wing Attack Frequency Play through the middle

Defensive Alignment Sit deep

Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Vilafranquense Compare

Top Goalscorer Martins B.

1 Goals

Assists Leader N/A

0 Ast

Avg xG / game 0

Avg xA / game 0

SC Farense Compare

Top Goalscorer Costa R.

1 Goals

Assists Leader N/A

0 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.8

Avg xA / game 0.49

Availability Alerts

No availability alerts or suspensions reported for this fixture.

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vilafranquense 33 / 100

SC Farense 33 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Vilafranquense SC Farense

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: SC Farense or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +34.8%

4.35

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +20.8%

3.45

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Expected Match Flow Timeline

Dominance and pressure projections by 15-minute intervals

0' - 15' Dominance Index

Both sides are expected to start cautiously, looking to control the midfield battle.

Vilafranquense 34%

SC Farense 27%

15' - 30' Dominance Index

The game is expected to settle into a tactical block, with both managers looking for space on the flanks.

Vilafranquense 29%

SC Farense 36%

30' - 45' Dominance Index

The tempo could accelerate as both teams push for an opening goal before half-time.

Vilafranquense 31%

SC Farense 34%

45' - 60' Dominance Index

Expect tactical adjustments from both sides, possibly shifting to a wider play style.

Vilafranquense 33%

SC Farense 32%

60' - 75' Dominance Index

As players tire, spaces will open up, leading to transitional counter-attacks for both teams.

Vilafranquense 28%

SC Farense 37%

75' - 90' Dominance Index

A high-risk final phase where any defensive lapse could lead to late drama and decide the match.

Vilafranquense 36%

SC Farense 39%

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Vilafranquense attacking → ← attacking SC Farense

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Vilafranquense have found the net in 63% of their last 30 matches.

SC Farense have conceded at least one goal in 65% of their last 31 fixtures.

Historical meetings between these sides average 2.60 goals per match.

Vilafranquense remained undefeated in 3 of their last 5 overall matchups.

SC Farense suffered defeat in 1 of their last 5 overall games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate

Risk Factor

Fatigue: Match timing requires careful team selection; potential roster adjustments may affect consistency.

Risk Factor

Standard league campaign fixture. Both teams have strong incentives to secure maximum points for table positioning.

Risk Factor

Match Intensity: High stakes fixture where discipline and tactical patience will be crucial factors.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

33 Points in last 5 34

0.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.88

0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.88

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Moreirense	34	24	7	3	77:38	79
2	SC Farense	34	21	6	7	57:34	69
3	Estrela da Amadora	34	16	15	3	55:35	63
4	Academico Viseu	34	14	11	9	51:45	53
5	FC Porto B	34	14	9	11	48:40	51
6	Mafra	34	12	11	11	46:49	47
7	Vilafranquense	34	12	10	12	42:36	46
8	Feirense	34	11	13	10	43:37	46
9	Torreense	34	13	5	16	38:41	44
10	Oliveirense	34	11	10	13	51:50	43
11	Tondela	34	8	16	10	35:35	40
12	Penafiel	34	9	12	13	36:47	39
13	Nacional	34	10	9	15	35:46	39
14	Benfica B	34	10	8	16	52:58	38
15	Leixoes	34	10	9	15	38:49	38
16	BSAD	34	9	8	17	41:59	35
17	Trofense	34	8	8	18	31:51	32
18	Covilha	34	7	7	20	31:57	28