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Stadium Background

Vilavelhense vs Real Noroeste

Brazil Brazil

Capixaba Estadio Gil Bernardes da Silveira (Sumare)
Our Tip

Match Events

45'
Mauricio
46'
Sub
Jhonatan In: Alberto
Out: Jhonatan
49'
David Lima

AI Match Summary

Vilavelhense in this Capixaba matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Vilavelhense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Vilavelhense
39%
Draws
31%
Real Noroeste
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Real Noroeste haven't matched Vilavelhense's recent run of results.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Regular Capixaba form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Real Noroeste have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Vilavelhense Clean Sheet 68%
Real Noroeste Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Vilavelhense Real Noroeste
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 11 9
Draws 8 8
Losses 10 13
Goals Scored 1.25 0.63
Goals Conceded 1 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 26, 2026 Capixaba
Vilavelhense vs Real Noroeste
1:0
May 17, 2025 Copa Espirito Santo
Real Noroeste vs Vilavelhense
1:0
Jan 29, 2025 Capixaba
Real Noroeste vs Vilavelhense
2:1
Jun 22, 2024 Copa Espirito Santo
Real Noroeste vs Vilavelhense
3:1
Feb 25, 2023 Capixaba
Real Noroeste vs Vilavelhense
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Vilavelhense Compare

Top Goalscorer Guilherme Augusto
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Real Noroeste Compare

Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vilavelhense 41 / 100
Real Noroeste 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Vilavelhense Real Noroeste

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick VIL Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Vilavelhense's goal record stands at 76% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Defensive concern: Real Noroeste conceded in 73% of 30 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.

Vilavelhense went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Vilavelhense VS Real Noroeste
1.25 Goals Scored 0.63
1 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 13%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Vitoria ES962114:420
2Serra942310:614
3Vilavelhense94148:1013
4Rio Branco ES934210:613
5Porto Vitoria93427:513
6Desportiva Ferroviaria932410:1111
7Real Noroeste93249:1311
8Forte92525:411
9Capixaba SC93156:1310
10Rio Branco-VN90548:155