Sport Picks

Brazil

Capixaba Estadio Mario Monteiro (Sumare)

Vilavelhense

1 - 0

Serra

Our Tip

Match Events

21'

Dandan

24'

Guilherme Augusto

33'

Ruan Lopes

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Capixaba game between Vilavelhense and Serra finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Vilavelhense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

70%

Vilavelhense

17%

Draws

13%

Serra

Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Vilavelhense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence

Serra carry the better recent record into this one.
Win probability leans Vilavelhense's way, sitting at 70%.
Regular Capixaba form gives a decent read on both sides.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%

Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 22%

Over 4.5 Goals 10%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%

Vilavelhense Clean Sheet 68%

Serra Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Vilavelhense	Serra
Matches Played	30	31
Wins	11	15
Draws	9	3
Losses	10	13
Goals Scored	1	1.13
Goals Conceded	1.13	1.38
Expected Goals (xG)	1.00	1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.13	1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 9, 2026 Copa Espirito Santo

Serra vs Vilavelhense

Possession: 41% - 57% Cards: 2 - 4

2:3

Mar 15, 2026 Capixaba

Serra vs Vilavelhense

Possession: 51% - 51% Cards: 3 - 4

1:0

Mar 7, 2026 Capixaba

Vilavelhense vs Serra

Possession: 50% - 55% Cards: 3 - 4

1:2

Feb 9, 2026 Capixaba

Vilavelhense vs Serra

Possession: 54% - 57% Cards: 3 - 2

1:0

Jun 15, 2025 Copa Espirito Santo

Vilavelhense vs Serra

Possession: 56% - 42% Cards: 0 - 1

2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Vilavelhense Compare

Top Goalscorer Guilherme Augusto

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.77

Avg xA / game 0.5

Serra Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03

Avg xA / game 0.63

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vilavelhense 77 / 100

Serra 14 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Vilavelhense Serra

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick VIL Win (1)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No

Correct Score 1:0

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Vilavelhense's goal record stands at 77% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Defensive concern: Serra conceded in 65% of 31 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Vilavelhense stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Vilavelhense VS Serra

1 Goals Scored 1.13

1.13 Goals Conceded 1.38

63% Over 1.5 50%

38% Over 2.5 50%

13% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vitoria ES	9	6	2	1	14:4	20
2	Serra	9	4	2	3	10:6	14
3	Vilavelhense	9	4	1	4	8:10	13
4	Rio Branco ES	9	3	4	2	10:6	13
5	Porto Vitoria	9	3	4	2	7:5	13
6	Desportiva Ferroviaria	9	3	2	4	10:11	11
7	Real Noroeste	9	3	2	4	9:13	11
8	Forte	9	2	5	2	5:4	11
9	Capixaba SC	9	3	1	5	6:13	10
10	Rio Branco-VN	9	0	5	4	8:15	5