Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Vilavelhense vs Vitoria ES

Brazil Brazil

Copa Espirito Santo Estadio Kleber Andrade, Cariacica
Our Tip

Match Events

15'
Abuda
45'
Patrick
45' Event
Jarles Baiano
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

This match ends 2-2. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Vilavelhense
33%
Draws
27%
Vitoria ES
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Vilavelhense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Vitoria ES carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Vilavelhense a 40% chance of winning this.
  • Vitoria ES arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Vilavelhense, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 73%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Vilavelhense Clean Sheet 68%
Vitoria ES Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Vilavelhense Vitoria ES
Matches Played 29 35
Wins 11 18
Draws 8 9
Losses 10 8
Goals Scored 1.43 1.88
Goals Conceded 1.14 0.88
Expected Goals (xG) 1.43 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.14 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 23, 2026 Copa Espirito Santo
Vitoria ES vs Vilavelhense
1:0
Jun 17, 2026 Copa Espirito Santo
Vilavelhense vs Vitoria ES
2:2
Jun 3, 2026 Copa Espirito Santo
Vilavelhense vs Vitoria ES
1:0
Jan 14, 2026 Capixaba
Vitoria ES vs Vilavelhense
1:0
Jul 12, 2025 Copa Espirito Santo
Vitoria ES vs Vilavelhense
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Vilavelhense Compare

Avg xG / game 1.1
Avg xA / game 0.71

Vitoria ES Compare

Top Goalscorer Canario
1 Goals
Assists Leader Thiago Magatao
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vilavelhense 50 / 100
Vitoria ES 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Vilavelhense Vitoria ES

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick VIL Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Vilavelhense's goal record stands at 76% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Historical meetings average 1.80 goals per match.

Vilavelhense went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Vitoria ES has conceded goals in 57% of their last 35 outings.

Scoring Trends

Vilavelhense VS Vitoria ES
1.43 Goals Scored 1.88
1.14 Goals Conceded 0.88
71% Over 1.5 75%
43% Over 2.5 50%
29% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Vilavelhense

(Home)
23 Jun
Vitoria ES
1 : 0
Vilavelhense
17 Jun
Vilavelhense
2 : 2
Vitoria ES
06 Jun
Vilavelhense
2 : 0
Audax Sao Mateus
03 Jun
Vilavelhense
1 : 0
Vitoria ES
28 May
Rio Branco ES
1 : 1
Vilavelhense
Page 1 of 6

Vitoria ES

(Away)
01 Jul
Vitoria ES
0 : 1
Rio Branco-VN
27 Jun
Betim FC
2 : 0
Vitoria ES
23 Jun
Vitoria ES
1 : 0
Vilavelhense
20 Jun
Vitoria ES
1 : 0
Betim FC
17 Jun
Vilavelhense
2 : 2
Vitoria ES
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Vitoria ES3
Vilavelhense2
Porto Vitoria3
Rio Branco-VN4
Final
Vitoria ES0
Rio Branco-VN1