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Villa Real vs Itabirito

Brazil Brazil

Mineiro 3 2022
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Villa Real in this Mineiro 3 2022 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Villa Real.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Villa Real
15%
Draws
39%
Itabirito
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Villa Real

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Villa Real lately — more wins on the board than Itabirito.
  • 39% — that's where the model lands on Itabirito taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 3 times recently and Villa Real have taken 2 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 64.6%
Villa Real Clean Sheet 20%
Itabirito Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Villa Real Itabirito
Matches Played 26 33
Wins 11 6
Draws 4 10
Losses 11 17
Goals Scored 1 0.88
Goals Conceded 1.12 1.58
Expected Goals (xG) 1.42 0.86
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 15, 2022 Mineiro 3
Itabirito vs Villa Real
0:1
Oct 8, 2022 Mineiro 3
Villa Real vs Itabirito
0:1
Sep 4, 2022 Mineiro 3
Villa Real vs Itabirito
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Villa Real 28 / 100
Itabirito 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Villa Real Itabirito

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Itabirito Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Itabirito conceded in 76% of 33 recent games.

Recent resilience: Villa Real stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Away concern: Itabirito has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Attacking prowess: Villa Real scored in 58% of their last 26 outings.

Scoring Trends

- VS Itabirito
0 Goals Scored 0.63
0 Goals Conceded 1.63
0% Over 1.5 75%
0% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Villa Real

(Home)
19 Oct
Villa Real
1 : 1
Inter de Minas
14 Oct
Guarani-MG
4 : 0
Villa Real
07 Oct
Tres Coracoes
0 : 3
Villa Real
02 Oct
Villa Real
2 : 0
Pocos de Caldas
29 Sept
Tupynambas
6 : 0
Villa Real
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Itabirito

(Away)
14 Feb
Itabirito
2 : 7
Atletico-MG
06 Feb
Betim FC
0 : 2
Itabirito
01 Feb
Itabirito
2 : 3
Tombense
24 Jan
URT
2 : 1
Itabirito
21 Jan
Uberlandia
0 : 1
Itabirito
Page 1 of 7

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 North Esporte Clube 7 5 1 1 12:5 16
2 Valeriodoce 7 5 1 1 11:5 16
3 America TO 7 4 2 1 11:6 14
4 Novo Esporte 7 4 1 2 13:8 13
5 Boston City 7 2 3 2 11:8 9
6 Contagem 7 2 2 3 8:7 8
7 Juventus Minasnovense 7 1 0 6 8:14 3
8 Ideal FC 7 0 0 7 0:21 0
Promotion - Mineiro 3 2022 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Itabirito 7 6 0 1 12:1 18
2 Villa Real 7 4 1 2 7:4 13
3 Santarritense 7 3 3 1 8:4 12
4 Tres Coracoes 7 3 1 3 12:13 10
5 Passos 7 2 3 2 5:5 9
6 Figueirense Esporte Clube 7 1 4 2 6:10 7
7 Betis 7 1 3 3 5:8 6
8 Pocos de Caldas 7 0 1 6 2:12 1
Promotion - Mineiro 3 2022 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Araxa 7 5 2 0 7:2 17
2 Coimbra Esporte Clube 7 4 1 2 13:8 13
3 Nacional Uberaba 7 4 0 3 11:8 12
4 Mamore 7 3 3 1 12:8 12
5 Inter de Minas 7 2 2 3 7:8 8
6 Serranense 7 1 3 3 8:10 6
7 Paracatu 7 1 3 3 7:12 6
8 Sao Gotardo 7 0 2 5 4:13 2
Promotion - Mineiro 3 2022 (Play Offs)