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Villa vs Kigezi HomeBoyz - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Uganda Uganda

Premier League Mutesa II Stadium, Kampala
Our Tip

Match Events

14' Event
Kakande P.
(Penalty)
17' Event
Ssemakula A.
80' Event
Otim A.
Assist: Asiimwe J.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League game between Villa and Kigezi HomeBoyz finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Villa.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

64%
Villa
30%
Draws
6%
Kigezi HomeBoyz
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Villa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Kigezi HomeBoyz haven't matched Villa's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Villa a 64% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 62.6%
Villa Clean Sheet 20%
Kigezi HomeBoyz Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Villa Kigezi HomeBoyz
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 19 13
Draws 7 5
Losses 4 10
Goals Scored 1.53 1.14
Goals Conceded 0.47 0.86
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 0.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 15, 2026 Premier League
Villa vs Kigezi HomeBoyz
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Villa Compare

Top Goalscorer Ssemakula A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Otim A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Kigezi HomeBoyz Compare

Avg xG / game 0.51
Avg xA / game 0.31

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Villa 85 / 100
Kigezi HomeBoyz 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Villa Kigezi HomeBoyz

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Villa Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Villa found the back of the net in 80% of recent matches (30 games).

Solid form: Villa remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Away concern: Kigezi HomeBoyz has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Villa VS Kigezi HomeBoyz
1.63 Goals Scored 0.38
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Villa

(Home)
07 Oct
Kataka
1 : 1
Villa
15 Sept
Villa
3 : 0
Kigezi HomeBoyz
09 Sept
Villa
2 : 0
Express FC
04 Sept
Uganda Revenue
0 : 1
Villa
29 Aug
Villa
1 : 1
Kitara
Page 1 of 6

Kigezi HomeBoyz

(Away)
07 Oct
Kitara
1 : 0
Kigezi HomeBoyz
15 Sept
Villa
3 : 0
Kigezi HomeBoyz
08 Sept
Kigezi HomeBoyz
0 : 0
Kampala City
29 Aug
Lugazi
2 : 1
Kigezi HomeBoyz
06 Jun
Kigezi HomeBoyz
0 : 1
Catda
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 BUL 4 4 0 0 11:3 12
2 NEC FC 5 3 2 0 9:2 11
3 Villa 5 3 2 0 8:2 11
4 Blacks Power 5 3 0 2 5:7 9
5 Police 4 2 1 1 3:1 7
6 Entebbe UPPC 4 2 1 1 3:2 7
7 Vipers 3 2 0 1 7:1 6
8 Maroons 5 2 0 3 8:6 6
9 Lugazi 5 2 0 3 4:9 6
10 Kitara 3 1 2 0 3:2 5
11 Express FC 5 1 2 2 3:4 5
12 UPDF FC 4 1 2 1 2:2 5
13 Kampala City 4 1 1 2 1:4 4
14 Uganda Revenue 3 1 0 2 3:6 3
15 Ntugasaze 5 1 0 4 3:11 3
16 Mbarara City 4 0 2 2 0:2 2
17 Kataka 4 0 2 2 2:6 2
18 Kigezi HomeBoyz 4 0 1 3 1:6 1
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Big League 2027/2028 (Main)