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Villa vs Kitara - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Uganda Uganda

Premier League Mutesa II Stadium, Kampala
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Okumu A.
90' Event
Asiki C.
Assist: Living K.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Premier League matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Villa
35%
Draws
32%
Kitara
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

33% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Villa lately — more wins on the board than Kitara.
  • Villa are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.200000000000003%
Villa Clean Sheet 68%
Kitara Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Villa Kitara
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 19 15
Draws 7 11
Losses 4 3
Goals Scored 1.53 1.55
Goals Conceded 0.47 0.69
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 29, 2026 Premier League
Villa vs Kitara
1:1
May 30, 2026 Uganda Cup
Kitara vs Villa
2:1
Apr 30, 2026 Premier League
Kitara vs Villa
2:0
Nov 6, 2025 Premier League
Villa vs Kitara
1:0
Apr 26, 2025 Premier League
Villa vs Kitara
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Villa Compare

Top Goalscorer Okumu A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Kitara Compare

Top Goalscorer Asiki C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Villa 50 / 100
Kitara 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Villa Kitara

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Villa Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Villa found the back of the net in 80% of recent matches (30 games).

Recent resilience: Villa stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

H2H data points to 1.60 goals as a typical output.

Kitara's defensive record shows goals conceded in 52% of 29 matches.

Scoring Trends

Villa VS Kitara
1.88 Goals Scored 1.38
0.75 Goals Conceded 0.88
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Villa

(Home)
07 Oct
Kataka
1 : 1
Villa
15 Sept
Villa
3 : 0
Kigezi HomeBoyz
09 Sept
Villa
2 : 0
Express FC
04 Sept
Uganda Revenue
0 : 1
Villa
29 Aug
Villa
1 : 1
Kitara
Page 1 of 6

Kitara

(Away)
07 Oct
Kitara
1 : 0
Kigezi HomeBoyz
17 Sept
Express FC
1 : 1
Kitara
12 Sept
Kitara
2 : 0
Mogadishu City
06 Sept
Mogadishu City
1 : 2
Kitara
29 Aug
Villa
1 : 1
Kitara
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 BUL 4 4 0 0 11:3 12
2 NEC FC 5 3 2 0 9:2 11
3 Villa 5 3 2 0 8:2 11
4 Blacks Power 5 3 0 2 5:7 9
5 Police 4 2 1 1 3:1 7
6 Entebbe UPPC 4 2 1 1 3:2 7
7 Vipers 3 2 0 1 7:1 6
8 Maroons 5 2 0 3 8:6 6
9 Lugazi 5 2 0 3 4:9 6
10 Kitara 3 1 2 0 3:2 5
11 Express FC 5 1 2 2 3:4 5
12 UPDF FC 4 1 2 1 2:2 5
13 Kampala City 4 1 1 2 1:4 4
14 Uganda Revenue 3 1 0 2 3:6 3
15 Ntugasaze 5 1 0 4 3:11 3
16 Mbarara City 4 0 2 2 0:2 2
17 Kataka 4 0 2 2 2:6 2
18 Kigezi HomeBoyz 4 0 1 3 1:6 1
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Big League 2027/2028 (Main)