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Villanovense vs Jerez CF

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

15' Event
Almagro J.
64' Event
Almagro J.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 game between Villanovense and Jerez CF finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Villanovense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Villanovense
20%
Draws
40%
Jerez CF
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Villanovense carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Villanovense's way, sitting at 50%.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Villanovense Clean Sheet 20%
Jerez CF Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Villanovense Jerez CF
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 13 9
Draws 6 11
Losses 11 10
Goals Scored 1.37 1.67
Goals Conceded 1.07 1.6
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 26, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Villanovense vs Jerez CF
2:0
Dec 20, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Jerez CF vs Villanovense
2:1
Apr 12, 2020 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Jerez CF vs Villanovense
0:0
Nov 17, 2019 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Villanovense vs Jerez CF
0:0
Apr 17, 2014 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Villanovense vs Jerez CF
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Villanovense Compare

Top Goalscorer Almagro J.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Jerez CF Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Villanovense 49 / 100
Jerez CF 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Villanovense Jerez CF

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Villanovense Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Jerez CF let in goals in 83% of their last 30 matches.

Attacking prowess: Villanovense scored in 67% of their last 30 outings.

Recent resilience: Villanovense stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Games between these two average 1.20 goals.

Scoring Trends

Villanovense VS Jerez CF
1.25 Goals Scored 1.25
1 Goals Conceded 1.63
63% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Villanovense

(Home)
04 Oct
Cabeza del Buey
1 : 1
Villanovense
27 Sept
Villanovense
2 : 0
Montijo
20 Sept
SP Villafranca
0 : 1
Villanovense
13 Sept
Villanovense
0 : 1
AD Llerenense
06 Sept
Moralo
2 : 1
Villanovense
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Jerez CF

(Away)
27 Sept
CD Azuaga
2 : 0
Jerez CF
20 Sept
Jerez CF
1 : 2
Castuera
13 Sept
Cabeza del Buey
0 : 1
Jerez CF
06 Sept
Jerez CF
2 : 2
Puebla de la Calzada
10 May
Jerez CF
5 : 1
Montehermoso
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Don Benito 34 21 8 5 70:22 71
2 CD Badajoz 34 23 5 6 64:27 71
3 Moralo 34 17 11 6 54:32 62
4 CD Azuaga 34 18 8 8 53:31 62
5 Jaraiz 34 16 11 7 53:33 59
6 Cabeza del Buey 34 15 12 7 45:29 57
7 SP Villafranca 34 16 7 11 45:40 55
8 Villanovense 34 15 8 11 45:36 53
9 Montijo 34 13 7 14 43:42 46
10 Jerez CF 34 8 17 9 56:51 41
11 AD Llerenense 34 11 8 15 35:44 41
12 Puebla de la Calzada 34 9 11 14 35:48 38
13 Santa Amalia 34 9 7 18 30:52 34
14 Gevora 34 8 9 17 32:53 33
15 Pueblonuevo 34 9 6 19 29:55 33
16 CD Diocesano 34 6 12 16 33:63 30
17 Montehermoso 34 5 8 21 24:66 23
18 CD Calamonte 34 3 13 18 25:47 22
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 (Play Offs)