Sport Picks

Spain

Tercera Division - Group 18 2013/2014

Alcazar

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Villarrobledo play Alcazar in the Tercera Division - Group 18 2013/2014. Villarrobledo are favorites here. Recently, Villarrobledo averaged 1.16 goals scored and 1.09 conceded. Alcazar averaged 0.6 goals scored and 3.37 conceded. In past meetings, Villarrobledo won 4, Alcazar won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on May 16, 2015 ended 2:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.79 for Villarrobledo and 0.94 for Alcazar. This points to a Villarrobledo double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

70%

Villarrobledo

17%

Draws

13%

Alcazar

Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Villarrobledo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence

Villarrobledo picked up more points recently compared to Alcazar.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.79 vs 0.94 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 57%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 72%

Over 2.5 Goals 57%

Over 3.5 Goals 34%

Over 4.5 Goals 17%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 43%

Villarrobledo Clean Sheet 24%

Alcazar Clean Sheet 18%

First Half Goal 65%

Second Half Goal 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Villarrobledo	Alcazar
Matches Played	32	30
Wins	12	1
Draws	11	4
Losses	9	25
Goals Scored	1.16	0.6
Goals Conceded	1.09	3.37

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 16, 2015 Tercera RFEF - Group 18

Alcazar vs Villarrobledo

Possession: 49% - 40% Cards: 2 - 4

2:3

Jan 3, 2015 Tercera RFEF - Group 18

Villarrobledo vs Alcazar

Possession: 46% - 44% Cards: 3 - 2

5:2

Jan 6, 2014 Tercera RFEF - Group 18

Villarrobledo vs Alcazar

Possession: 52% - 45% Cards: 2 - 1

3:1

Aug 25, 2013 Tercera RFEF - Group 18

Alcazar vs Villarrobledo

Possession: 59% - 43% Cards: 0 - 4

0:1

Jan 20, 2013 Tercera RFEF - Group 18

Alcazar vs Villarrobledo

Possession: 55% - 51% Cards: 2 - 4

1:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Villarrobledo 68 / 100

Alcazar 15 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Villarrobledo Alcazar

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Villarrobledo Win (1)

Secondary Pick Villarrobledo & Over 2.5

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +12.7%

1.61

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +11.7%

1.96

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Villarrobledo attacking → ← attacking Alcazar

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Villarrobledo scored in 66% of their last 32 games.

Alcazar let in goals in 87% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.60 goals.

Villarrobledo went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Alcazar lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

47 Points in last 5 7

0.38 Goals expected (xG) 0.00

0.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	CD Puertollano	38	31	5	2	88:18	98
2	Socuellamos	38	25	8	5	72:26	83
3	Villarrobledo	38	22	10	6	80:32	76
4	UD Almansa	38	20	12	6	53:36	72
5	CF Talavera	38	21	9	8	72:34	72
6	Villarrubia	38	16	10	12	48:56	58
7	CD Pedroneras	38	14	12	12	42:50	54
8	La Gineta	38	12	12	14	51:55	48
9	Atletico Ibanes	38	11	14	13	44:50	47
10	Quintanar del Rey	38	12	11	15	44:56	47
11	Manzanares	38	11	12	15	41:46	45
12	Albacete B	38	10	13	15	45:58	43
13	Manchego Ciudad Real	38	10	13	15	43:54	43
14	Hellin Deportivo	38	10	13	15	35:40	43
15	Alcazar	38	11	8	19	46:56	41
16	Mora CF	38	12	4	22	37:63	40
17	Madridejos	38	8	14	16	30:41	38
18	Illescas	38	8	12	18	39:59	36
19	Azuqueca	38	9	9	20	36:53	36
20	EF Zona 5 Albacete	38	2	9	27	34:97	15