Sport Picks

Spain

Tercera Division - Group 18 2015/2016

Toledo 2

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Risks Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Villarrubia play Toledo 2 in the Tercera Division - Group 18 2015/2016. It looks like a close match. Recently, Villarrubia averaged 1.22 goals scored and 1.13 conceded. Toledo 2 averaged 1.33 goals scored and 1.73 conceded. In past meetings, Villarrubia won 3, Toledo 2 won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Apr 1, 2017 ended 1:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.17 for Villarrubia and 0.94 for Toledo 2. This points to a Villarrubia double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%

Villarrubia

15%

Draws

34%

Toledo 2

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Villarrubia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

77% / High Confidence

Villarrubia picked up more points recently compared to Toledo 2.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.17 vs 0.94 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 75%

Over 2.5 Goals 52%

Over 3.5 Goals 31%

Over 4.5 Goals 16%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 51%

Villarrubia Clean Sheet 24%

Toledo 2 Clean Sheet 12%

First Half Goal 68%

Second Half Goal 71%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Villarrubia	Toledo 2
Matches Played	32	30
Wins	14	9
Draws	6	6
Losses	12	15
Goals Scored	1.22	1.33
Goals Conceded	1.13	1.73

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 1, 2017 Tercera RFEF - Group 18

Villarrubia vs Toledo 2

Possession: 43% - 43% Cards: 4 - 3

1:3

Nov 6, 2016 Tercera RFEF - Group 18

Toledo 2 vs Villarrubia

Possession: 43% - 49% Cards: 2 - 1

0:1

May 15, 2016 Tercera RFEF - Group 18

Villarrubia vs Toledo 2

Possession: 58% - 49% Cards: 2 - 2

2:0

Jan 3, 2016 Tercera RFEF - Group 18

Toledo 2 vs Villarrubia

Possession: 56% - 41% Cards: 2 - 1

1:0

Apr 2, 2015 Tercera RFEF - Group 18

Villarrubia vs Toledo 2

Possession: 47% - 51% Cards: 0 - 2

2:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Villarrubia 51 / 100

Toledo 2 33 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Villarrubia Toledo 2

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Villarrubia or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +18.8%

2.33

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +12.8%

2.17

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Villarrubia attacking → ← attacking Toledo 2

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Villarrubia scored in 72% of their last 32 games.

Toledo 2 let in goals in 90% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Villarrubia went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Toledo 2 lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate

Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

48 Points in last 5 33

1.13 Goals expected (xG) 0.00

0.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Conquense	38	24	4	10	54:26	76
2	Almagro	38	22	10	6	64:33	76
3	Azuqueca	38	20	10	8	58:31	70
4	UD Almansa	38	17	15	6	54:35	66
5	Quintanar del Rey	38	17	11	10	38:29	62
6	Madridejos	38	16	12	10	47:45	60
7	Illescas	38	16	10	12	50:47	58
8	Villarrobledo	38	15	9	14	44:38	54
9	Marchamalo	38	14	10	14	51:53	52
10	Manchego Ciudad Real	38	14	9	15	41:36	51
11	Toledo 2	38	14	9	15	50:48	51
12	Villarrubia	38	12	12	14	34:34	48
13	CD Pedroneras	38	12	12	14	36:42	48
14	Albacete B	38	10	16	12	47:51	46
15	Mora CF	38	13	7	18	43:48	46
16	Manzanares	38	11	12	15	39:43	45
17	Atletico Ibanes	38	9	15	14	29:42	42
18	La Gineta	38	8	8	22	41:61	32
19	San Jose Obrero	38	7	10	21	37:70	31
20	Munera CF	38	5	7	26	28:73	22