Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Viltis Vilnius vs Dainava Alytus

Lithuania Lithuania

Lithuanian Cup
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

This looks like a tight matchup. Neither side is clearly dominant, with Viltis Vilnius averaging 1.4 xG at home and Dainava Alytus producing 4.0 xG on their travels. Dainava Alytus will likely drop deep and defend, forcing Viltis Vilnius to find a way to break them down. History suggests plenty of goals when these two play. Over 2.5 goals seems highly likely based on recent attacking form. The numbers suggest backing Dainava Alytus has the better value, giving them a 58% chance.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Viltis Vilnius
15%
Draws
58%
Dainava Alytus
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Dainava Alytus

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

84% / High Confidence
  • Viltis Vilnius picked up more points recently compared to Dainava Alytus.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.44 vs 4.00 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 64%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 87%
Over 1.5 Goals 84%
Over 2.5 Goals 64%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 19%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 52%
Viltis Vilnius Clean Sheet 10%
Dainava Alytus Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 76%
Second Half Goal 80%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Viltis Vilnius Dainava Alytus
Matches Played 19 30
Wins 5 11
Draws 0 7
Losses 14 12
Goals Scored 1.63 1.47
Goals Conceded 2.95 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 4.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40
Possession % 53.5% 46.5%
Shots per Match 13.8 11.2
Shots on Target 4.8 3.6
Corners per Match 5.6 4.4
Yellow/Red Cards 1.8 2.2

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

28.04.26 Lithuanian Cup
Viltis Vilnius vs Dainava Alytus
1:7

Tactical Matchup Profile

Field Positions & Control Styles

Viltis Vilnius

Pressing Intensity Medium Block
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency A lot of crosses
Defensive Alignment Sit deep
Strengths
  • Dangerous on corners
  • Overlap on the wings
  • Quick counters
Weaknesses
  • Vulnerable to counters
  • Weak in the air

Dainava Alytus

Pressing Intensity Passive low block (PPDA > 14)
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency Play through the middle
Defensive Alignment Sit deep
Strengths
  • Quick recovery
  • Solid midfield screen
  • Quick counters
Weaknesses
  • Fouling under pressure
  • Defending set pieces

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Viltis Vilnius Compare

Top Goalscorer Key Forward
9 Goals
Assists Leader Midfield Maestro
7 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.33
Avg xA / game 0.89

Dainava Alytus Compare

Top Goalscorer Key Forward
29 Goals
Assists Leader Midfield Maestro
22 Ast
Avg xG / game 4.36
Avg xA / game 2.91

Availability Alerts

Key Defender Dainava Alytus • Hamstring Injury
Out Rating: 8.5
Starting Midfielder Viltis Vilnius • Ankle Sprain
Doubtful Rating: 6.8
Backup Goalkeeper Dainava Alytus • Muscle strain
Out Rating: 3.2
Star Striker Viltis Vilnius • Returning to training
Returning Rating: 9.4

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Viltis Vilnius 26 / 100
Dainava Alytus 54 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Viltis Vilnius Dainava Alytus

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Dainava Alytus Win (2)
Secondary Pick Dainava Alytus & Over 2.5
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +42%
5.26
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +10.1%
1.72
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Expected Match Flow Timeline

Dominance and pressure projections by 15-minute intervals

0' - 15' Dominance Index

Viltis Vilnius will likely press early to force mistakes.

Viltis Vilnius 59%
Dainava Alytus 37%
15' - 30' Dominance Index

Dainava Alytus should settle down and try to slow the pace.

Viltis Vilnius 54%
Dainava Alytus 44%
30' - 45' Dominance Index

Both sides will look to break quickly before the half-time whistle.

Viltis Vilnius 51%
Dainava Alytus 49%
45' - 60' Dominance Index

Tactical adjustments will show. Expect Viltis Vilnius to push more players wide.

Viltis Vilnius 56%
Dainava Alytus 44%
60' - 75' Dominance Index

Players will tire. Fresh legs from the bench will spark quicker counter-attacks.

Viltis Vilnius 51%
Dainava Alytus 49%
75' - 90' Dominance Index

Late drama. Teams will take major risks depending on the scoreline.

Viltis Vilnius 62%
Dainava Alytus 53%

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Viltis Vilnius attacking → ← attacking Dainava Alytus

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Viltis Vilnius have scored in 87% of their home games in the past 12 months.

Dainava Alytus concede most goals (44%) in the final 15 minutes of matches.

Meetings between these sides average 26 shots per game, well above the league median.

Viltis Vilnius are unbeaten in 6 straight matches when scoring first.

Dainava Alytus have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 5 matches.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Low
Risk Factor

Fatigue: Both played three matches in ten days, so managers might rotate players.

Risk Factor

Incentive: Viltis Vilnius wants a European spot, while Dainava Alytus is battling relegation.

Risk Factor

Cards: Historically tense game, a red card could change the whole setup.

Public Accuracy Dashboard

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Overall Accuracy 78.4%
BTTS Accuracy 73.1%
Over 2.5 Accuracy 75.6%
Correct Score Accuracy 18.9%
*All accuracy percentages are audited daily against official match logs.

Recent Predictions Log

Date Prediction Result Status
2026-07-05 Over 2.5 Goals 1-0 Lost
2026-07-01 Home Win (1) 2-0 Won
2026-06-27 Over 2.5 Goals 3-1 Won
2026-06-23 Home Win (1) 1-1 Lost
2026-06-19 Over 2.5 Goals 3-1 Won
2026-06-15 Home Win (1) 2-0 Won
2026-06-11 Over 2.5 Goals 1-0 Lost
2026-06-07 Home Win (1) 2-0 Won

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

15 Points in last 5 40
1.44 Goals expected (xG) 4.00
1.10 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.40
53.5% Ball possession % 46.5%
13.8 Shots per game 11.2
4.8 Shots on target 3.6
5.6 Corners per game 4.4
1.8 Cards per game 2.2