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Vinodol vs Novigrad

Croatia Croatia

3. HNL West
Vinodol Logo

Vinodol

0 - 3
FT
Novigrad Logo

Novigrad

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The 3. HNL West game between Vinodol and Novigrad finished 0-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Novigrad.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

54%
Vinodol
30%
Draws
16%
Novigrad
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Vinodol

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

54% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Novigrad come out ahead of Vinodol on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Vinodol's way, sitting at 80%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Vinodol Clean Sheet 16%
Novigrad Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Vinodol Novigrad
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 6 11
Draws 9 8
Losses 15 11
Goals Scored 1.33 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.93 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 28, 2022 3. HNL West
Novigrad vs Vinodol
3:4
Nov 20, 2021 3. HNL West
Vinodol vs Novigrad
0:3
Apr 24, 2021 3. HNL West
Vinodol vs Novigrad
1:1
Oct 10, 2020 3. HNL West
Novigrad vs Vinodol
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vinodol 75 / 100
Novigrad 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Vinodol Novigrad

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Vinodol Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.75 goals.

Vinodol found the back of the net in 60% of recent matches (30 games).

Novigrad let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

Recent resilience: Vinodol stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Vinodol VS Novigrad
1.63 Goals Scored 1.63
1.38 Goals Conceded 2
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Vinodol

(Home)
29 Jul
Vinodol
0 : 1
Grobnican
28 May
Novigrad
3 : 4
Vinodol
21 May
Vinodol
0 : 1
Crikvenica
14 May
Uljanik Pula
3 : 3
Vinodol
07 May
Vinodol
1 : 0
Cres
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Novigrad

(Away)
28 May
Novigrad
3 : 4
Vinodol
21 May
Jadran Porec
0 : 0
Novigrad
14 May
Novigrad
2 : 3
Rudar Labin
07 May
Krk
4 : 1
Novigrad
30 Apr
Novigrad
3 : 3
Grobnican
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Crikvenica 26 18 2 6 53:24 56
2 Grobnican 26 16 7 3 66:23 55
3 Jadran Porec 26 16 6 4 59:22 53
4 Pazinka 26 12 5 9 31:33 41
5 Krk 26 12 3 11 40:42 39
6 Uljanik Pula 26 10 7 9 44:32 37
7 Novigrad 26 10 6 10 39:39 36
8 Rudar Labin 26 11 3 12 37:39 36
9 Cres 26 8 5 13 36:44 29
10 Nehaj Senj 26 7 8 11 26:40 29
11 Buje 26 9 2 15 22:36 29
12 NK Pomorac 26 7 5 14 32:62 26
13 Vinodol 26 5 9 12 31:47 24
14 Naprijed Hreljin 26 5 4 17 24:57 19
Promotion - Prva NL 2022/2023 (Main)
Promotion - 3. HNL - Promotion Play Offs (Main)