Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Virtus Bolzano vs Luparense FC

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group C 2023/2024
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Virtus Bolzano play Luparense FC in the Serie D - Group C 2023/2024. It looks like a close match. Recently, Virtus Bolzano averaged 0.67 goals scored and 1.77 conceded. Luparense FC averaged 1.13 goals scored and 1.13 conceded. In past meetings, Virtus Bolzano won 1, Luparense FC won 4, and they drew 0. Their last match on Jan 28, 2024 ended 1:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.10 for Virtus Bolzano and 1.05 for Luparense FC. This points to a Luparense FC double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

24%
Virtus Bolzano
23%
Draws
53%
Luparense FC
Draw rate projection: 23% Favored: Luparense FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

83% / High Confidence
  • Virtus Bolzano picked up more points recently compared to Luparense FC.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.10 vs 1.05 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 76%
Over 2.5 Goals 42%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 13%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 48%
Virtus Bolzano Clean Sheet 22%
Luparense FC Clean Sheet 14%
First Half Goal 68%
Second Half Goal 72%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Virtus Bolzano Luparense FC
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 4 10
Draws 9 11
Losses 17 10
Goals Scored 0.67 1.13
Goals Conceded 1.77 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 28, 2024 Serie D - Group C
Virtus Bolzano vs Luparense FC
1:2
Oct 1, 2023 Serie D - Group C
Luparense FC vs Virtus Bolzano
3:1
Mar 12, 2023 Serie D - Group C
Luparense FC vs Virtus Bolzano
3:0
Nov 6, 2022 Serie D - Group C
Virtus Bolzano vs Luparense FC
3:2
Feb 13, 2021 Serie D - Group C
Luparense FC vs Virtus Bolzano
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Virtus Bolzano Compare

Top Goalscorer Bounou Y.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Luparense FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Semenzato D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Blesio L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Virtus Bolzano 26 / 100
Luparense FC 51 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Virtus Bolzano Luparense FC

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Luparense FC Win (2)
Secondary Pick Luparense FC & Under 3.5
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +50%
6.25
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +16.8%
2.78
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Virtus Bolzano attacking → ← attacking Luparense FC

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Virtus Bolzano scored in 47% of their last 30 games.

Luparense FC let in goals in 77% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Virtus Bolzano went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Luparense FC lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

21 Points in last 5 41
0.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.00
0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Clodiense34255449:1780
2Dolomiti Bellunesi34199656:2566
3Treviso341931251:3760
4Bassano Virtus341591035:3054
5Campodarsego341215742:2651
6Este341312944:3351
7Montecchio Maggiore341491148:4051
8Adriese3413111054:4150
9Portogruaro341391252:4348
10Mestre341391234:3748
11Montebelluna3411121135:4145
12Chions3410111340:5041
13Luparense FC341091538:4139
14Breno348131339:4937
15Cjarlins Muzane347141330:3735
16Castegnato347121539:5833
17Virtus Bolzano344121825:5224
18Mori34362522:7615