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Virtus Castelfranco vs Fiorenzuola

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group D 2016/2017
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group D 2016/2017 game between Virtus Castelfranco and Fiorenzuola finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Virtus Castelfranco.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

73%
Virtus Castelfranco
20%
Draws
7%
Fiorenzuola
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Virtus Castelfranco

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / High Confidence
  • Virtus Castelfranco carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Virtus Castelfranco's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group D 2016/2017 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.2%
Virtus Castelfranco Clean Sheet 20%
Fiorenzuola Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Virtus Castelfranco Fiorenzuola
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 7 5
Draws 8 3
Losses 15 23
Goals Scored 0.8 0.61
Goals Conceded 1.3 1.48
Expected Goals (xG) 1.42 0.93
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 7, 2017 Serie D - Group D
Virtus Castelfranco vs Fiorenzuola
2:1
Dec 18, 2016 Serie D - Group D
Fiorenzuola vs Virtus Castelfranco
2:0
Mar 29, 2015 Serie D - Group D
Fiorenzuola vs Virtus Castelfranco
1:2
Nov 16, 2014 Serie D - Group D
Virtus Castelfranco vs Fiorenzuola
0:4

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Virtus Castelfranco 85 / 100
Fiorenzuola 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Virtus Castelfranco Fiorenzuola

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Virtus Castelfranco Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Fiorenzuola conceded in 84% of 31 recent games.

Attacking prowess: Virtus Castelfranco scored in 60% of their last 30 outings.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Virtus Castelfranco went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Fiorenzuola
0 Goals Scored 0.75
0 Goals Conceded 1.63
0% Over 1.5 88%
0% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Virtus Castelfranco

(Home)
07 May
Virtus Castelfranco
2 : 1
Fiorenzuola
30 Apr
Rignanese
1 : 3
Virtus Castelfranco
23 Apr
Virtus Castelfranco
1 : 1
Ribelle
13 Apr
Delta Porto Tolle
0 : 1
Virtus Castelfranco
09 Apr
Virtus Castelfranco
1 : 3
Sangiovannese
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Fiorenzuola

(Away)
27 Sept
Fiorenzuola
1 : 1
Caldiero Terme
20 Sept
Brusaporto
1 : 0
Fiorenzuola
16 Sept
Fiorenzuola
0 : 1
Pro Palazzolo
13 Sept
Nibbiano & Valtidone
1 : 0
Fiorenzuola
06 Sept
Fiorenzuola
0 : 3
Scanzorosciate
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ravenna 34 17 14 3 52:26 65
2 Imolese 34 18 9 7 60:35 63
3 Delta Porto Tolle 34 17 10 7 57:37 61
4 Lentigione 34 16 10 8 40:31 58
5 Correggese 34 16 8 10 58:48 56
6 Castelvetro 34 15 5 14 60:57 50
7 Scandicci 34 13 7 14 45:55 46
8 Pianese 34 12 10 12 46:48 46
9 Mezzolara 34 11 12 11 44:46 45
10 Rignanese 34 11 11 12 34:35 44
11 San Donato Tavarnelle 34 11 11 12 50:48 44
12 Fiorenzuola 34 12 7 15 39:45 43
13 Colligiana 34 10 13 11 46:47 43
14 Adriese 34 11 6 17 46:51 39
15 Ribelle 34 8 15 11 45:46 38
16 Sangiovannese 34 10 7 17 42:51 37
17 Virtus Castelfranco 34 8 9 17 25:41 33
18 Poggibonsi 34 6 4 24 24:66 21
Promotion - Serie D - Group A 2016/2017 (Winners stage)
Promotion - Serie D - Group D 2016/2017 (Play Offs)