Sport Picks

Italy

Serie D - Group D 2016/2017

Fiorenzuola

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Virtus Castelfranco play Fiorenzuola in the Serie D - Group D 2016/2017. It looks like a close match. Recently, Virtus Castelfranco averaged 0.8 goals scored and 1.3 conceded. Fiorenzuola averaged 0.69 goals scored and 1.41 conceded. In past meetings, Virtus Castelfranco won 2, Fiorenzuola won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on May 7, 2017 ended 2:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.54 for Virtus Castelfranco and 0.93 for Fiorenzuola. This points to a Virtus Castelfranco double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

48%

Virtus Castelfranco

15%

Draws

37%

Fiorenzuola

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Virtus Castelfranco

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

74% / Medium Confidence

Virtus Castelfranco picked up more points recently compared to Fiorenzuola.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.54 vs 0.93 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 68%

Over 2.5 Goals 44%

Over 3.5 Goals 26%

Over 4.5 Goals 13%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 39%

Virtus Castelfranco Clean Sheet 24%

Fiorenzuola Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 61%

Second Half Goal 65%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Virtus Castelfranco	Fiorenzuola
Matches Played	30	32
Wins	7	7
Draws	8	4
Losses	15	21
Goals Scored	0.8	0.69
Goals Conceded	1.3	1.41

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 7, 2017 Serie D - Group D

Virtus Castelfranco vs Fiorenzuola

Possession: 44% - 46% Cards: 2 - 3

2:1

Dec 18, 2016 Serie D - Group D

Fiorenzuola vs Virtus Castelfranco

Possession: 43% - 48% Cards: 2 - 2

2:0

Mar 29, 2015 Serie D - Group D

Fiorenzuola vs Virtus Castelfranco

Possession: 58% - 41% Cards: 1 - 1

1:2

Nov 16, 2014 Serie D - Group D

Virtus Castelfranco vs Fiorenzuola

Possession: 57% - 50% Cards: 0 - 1

0:4

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Virtus Castelfranco 48 / 100

Fiorenzuola 35 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Virtus Castelfranco Fiorenzuola

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Virtus Castelfranco or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +20%

2.50

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +15.7%

2.63

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Virtus Castelfranco attacking → ← attacking Fiorenzuola

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Virtus Castelfranco scored in 60% of their last 30 games.

Fiorenzuola let in goals in 78% of their last 32 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Virtus Castelfranco went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Fiorenzuola lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

29 Points in last 5 25

0.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.75

0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.88

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Ravenna	34	17	14	3	52:26	65
2	Imolese	34	18	9	7	60:35	63
3	Delta Porto Tolle	34	17	10	7	57:37	61
4	Lentigione	34	16	10	8	40:31	58
5	Correggese	34	16	8	10	58:48	56
6	Castelvetro	34	15	5	14	60:57	50
7	Scandicci	34	13	7	14	45:55	46
8	Pianese	34	12	10	12	46:48	46
9	Mezzolara	34	11	12	11	44:46	45
10	Rignanese	34	11	11	12	34:35	44
11	San Donato Tavarnelle	34	11	11	12	50:48	44
12	Fiorenzuola	34	12	7	15	39:45	43
13	Colligiana	34	10	13	11	46:47	43
14	Adriese	34	11	6	17	46:51	39
15	Ribelle	34	8	15	11	45:46	38
16	Sangiovannese	34	10	7	17	42:51	37
17	Virtus Castelfranco	34	8	9	17	25:41	33
18	Poggibonsi	34	6	4	24	24:66	21