Sport Picks
Virtus Francavilla vs Paganese
Italy
Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 Stadio Giovanni Paolo II, Francavilla Fontana 
Match Events
37'
37'
Labriola V.
55'
55'
Pierdomenico A.
AI Match Summary
Paganese in this Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Paganese.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
35%
20%
45%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Paganese
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
45%
/ Medium Confidence
- Virtus Francavilla haven't matched Paganese's recent run of results.
- Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
- Regular Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
Virtus Francavilla Clean Sheet 14%
Paganese Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Virtus Francavilla | Paganese |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 13 | 15 |
| Draws | 8 | 6 |
| Losses | 8 | 8 |
| Goals Scored | 1.34 | 1.1 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.1 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.38 | 1.63 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Feb 8, 2026 Serie D - Group H
Virtus Francavilla vs Paganese
0:2
Oct 5, 2025 Serie D - Group H
Paganese vs Virtus Francavilla
1:1
Mar 13, 2022 Serie C - Group C
Virtus Francavilla vs Paganese
3:3
Oct 30, 2021 Serie C - Group C
Paganese vs Virtus Francavilla
2:1
Feb 17, 2021 Serie C - Group C
Virtus Francavilla vs Paganese
0:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Virtus Francavilla Compare
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69
Paganese Compare
Top Goalscorer Labriola V.
1 Goals Assists Leader Pierdomenico A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Virtus Francavilla 35 / 100
Paganese 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Virtus Francavilla Paganese
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Paganese Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Virtus Francavilla found the back of the net in 66% of recent matches (29 games).
H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.
Recent resilience: Virtus Francavilla stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.
Defensive concern: Paganese conceded in 55% of 29 recent games.
Scoring Trends
Virtus Francavilla VS Paganese
1.38 Goals Scored 1.38
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Virtus Francavilla
(Home) 16 Sept
Virtus Francavilla
2 : 1 Brindisi
13 Sept
Melfi
0 : 1 Virtus Francavilla
06 Sept
Virtus Francavilla
3 : 1 Palmese 1914
03 May
Virtus Francavilla
2 : 2 Sarnese
26 Apr
Pompei
4 : 1 Virtus Francavilla
Page 1 of 6
16 Sept
Virtus Francavilla
2 : 1 Brindisi
06 Sept
Virtus Francavilla
3 : 1 Palmese 1914
03 May
Virtus Francavilla
2 : 2 Sarnese
19 Apr
Virtus Francavilla
0 : 3 Francavilla
12 Apr
Virtus Francavilla
0 : 2 Fidelis Andria
Page 1 of 3
Paganese
(Away) 16 Sept
Paganese
0 : 0 Afragolese
12 Sept
Latte Dolce
2 : 3 Paganese
06 Sept
Paganese
2 : 1 Unipomezia
17 May
Martina Calcio
0 : 1 Paganese
10 May
Citta di Fasano
1 : 2 Paganese
Page 1 of 6
12 Sept
Latte Dolce
2 : 3 Paganese
17 May
Martina Calcio
0 : 1 Paganese
10 May
Citta di Fasano
1 : 2 Paganese
03 May
Citta di Fasano
6 : 0 Paganese
19 Apr
Gravina
1 : 0 Paganese
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barletta | 34 | 20 | 10 | 4 | 54:20 | 70 |
| 2 | Martina Calcio | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 47:30 | 62 |
| 3 | Citta di Fasano | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 51:35 | 62 |
| 4 | Paganese | 34 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 36:32 | 58 |
| 5 | A.C.D. Nardo | 34 | 14 | 13 | 7 | 40:27 | 55 |
| 6 | Gravina | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 50:40 | 55 |
| 7 | Afragolese | 34 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 45:46 | 49 |
| 8 | Fidelis Andria | 34 | 13 | 9 | 12 | 35:28 | 48 |
| 9 | Virtus Francavilla | 34 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 45:40 | 48 |
| 10 | Real Normanna | 34 | 10 | 13 | 11 | 27:26 | 43 |
| 11 | Francavilla | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 39:38 | 43 |
| 12 | Manfredonia | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 34:39 | 43 |
| 13 | Sarnese | 34 | 9 | 14 | 11 | 51:49 | 41 |
| 14 | SS Nola 1925 | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 42:50 | 41 |
| 15 | Heraclea | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 31:39 | 38 |
| 16 | Pompei | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 26:38 | 34 |
| 17 | Ferrandina | 34 | 7 | 9 | 18 | 21:43 | 30 |
| 18 | Acerrana | 34 | 3 | 5 | 26 | 20:74 | 14 |
Promotion - Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 (Play Out)
