Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Virtus Matino vs Casarano

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group H 2021/2022
Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Palmisano G.
43' Event
Dambros L.
45' Event
Montinaro M.

AI Match Summary

Casarano in this Serie D - Group H 2021/2022 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Casarano.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%
Virtus Matino
15%
Draws
53%
Casarano
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Casarano

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

53% / Medium Confidence
  • Casarano have won more games recently than Virtus Matino.
  • Casarano are the model's pick here, at 70%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group H 2021/2022 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Virtus Matino Clean Sheet 12%
Casarano Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Virtus Matino Casarano
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 6 15
Draws 4 4
Losses 20 9
Goals Scored 0.97 1.64
Goals Conceded 1.73 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.04 1.74
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 20, 2022 Serie D - Group H
Virtus Matino vs Casarano
1:2
Oct 17, 2021 Serie D - Group H
Casarano vs Virtus Matino
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Virtus Matino Compare

Top Goalscorer Palmisano G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.52

Casarano Compare

Top Goalscorer Dambros L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Montinaro M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.58
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Virtus Matino 14 / 100
Casarano 77 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Virtus Matino Casarano

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Casarano Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Casarano's defensive record shows goals conceded in 75% of 28 matches.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Virtus Matino scored in 57% of their last 30 games.

Virtus Matino went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Casarano
0 Goals Scored 2.38
0 Goals Conceded 0.88
0% Over 1.5 100%
0% Over 2.5 75%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Virtus Matino

(Home)
22 May
Virtus Matino
3 : 4
Brindisi
15 May
Rotonda
2 : 0
Virtus Matino
08 May
Virtus Matino
1 : 5
Bitonto
01 May
Francavilla
2 : 3
Virtus Matino
24 Apr
Virtus Matino
2 : 1
Nocerina
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Casarano

(Away)
19 Sept
A.C. Savoia
1 : 1
Casarano
15 Sept
Casarano
1 : 0
Audace Cerignola
11 Sept
Casarano
3 : 1
Barletta
05 Sept
Bari
1 : 0
Casarano
28 Aug
Casarano
4 : 3
Giugliano
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Audace Cerignola 38 26 10 2 83:27 88
2 Francavilla 38 22 5 11 62:44 71
3 Bitonto 38 19 8 11 56:40 65
4 Citta di Fasano 38 18 8 12 63:50 62
5 Nocerina 38 17 7 14 55:48 58
6 Gravina 38 16 8 14 51:49 56
7 Casertana 38 15 10 13 56:52 55
8 Sorrento 38 14 10 14 41:50 52
9 SS Nola 1925 38 14 9 15 50:58 51
10 Brindisi 38 14 7 17 42:55 49
11 Molfetta Calcio 38 11 15 12 48:45 48
12 Mariglianese 38 13 8 17 43:46 47
13 Casarano 38 12 11 15 37:49 47
14 Altamura 38 12 11 15 48:45 47
15 A.C.D. Nardo 38 12 9 17 59:67 45
16 Lavello 38 12 9 17 49:56 45
17 Rotonda 38 14 8 16 39:46 42
18 San Giorgio 38 9 14 15 30:44 41
19 Bisceglie 38 8 15 15 32:47 39
20 Virtus Matino 38 8 6 24 36:62 30
Promotion - Serie D - Group A 2021/2022 (Winners stage)
Promotion - Serie D - Group H 2021/2022 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group H 2021/2022 (Play Out)