Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Virtus vs SS Murata

San Marino San Marino

Campionato Sammarinese 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

24' Event
Ciacci E.
Assist: Buonocunto I.
26' Event
Ciacci E.
Assist: Piscitella G.
30' Event
Buonocunto I.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

The Campionato Sammarinese 2025/2026 game between Virtus and SS Murata finished 4-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Virtus.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

85%
Virtus
15%
Draws
0%
SS Murata
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Virtus

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Virtus carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Virtus a 85% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Virtus have taken 5 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Virtus Clean Sheet 68%
SS Murata Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Virtus SS Murata
Matches Played 38 30
Wins 26 3
Draws 6 4
Losses 6 23
Goals Scored 2.24 0.77
Goals Conceded 0.76 2.67
Expected Goals (xG) 3.06 0.71
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 12, 2026 Campionato Sammarinese
Virtus vs SS Murata
4:1
Dec 13, 2025 Campionato Sammarinese
SS Murata vs Virtus
0:2
Feb 23, 2025 Campionato Sammarinese
SS Murata vs Virtus
0:1
Oct 26, 2024 Campionato Sammarinese
Virtus vs SS Murata
2:1
Mar 13, 2024 Campionato Sammarinese
SS Murata vs Virtus
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Virtus Compare

Top Goalscorer Ciacci E.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Zenoni M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.35
Avg xA / game 1.53

SS Murata Compare

Top Goalscorer Labas J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.65
Avg xA / game 0.39

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Virtus 95 / 100
SS Murata 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Virtus SS Murata

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Virtus Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 4:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Virtus scored in 87% of their last 38 outings.

Defensive concern: SS Murata conceded in 93% of 30 recent games.

SS Murata's recent record shows 5 losses from the last 5 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Scoring Trends

Virtus VS SS Murata
3.13 Goals Scored 0.67
0.75 Goals Conceded 3
75% Over 1.5 83%
50% Over 2.5 67%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Virtus

(Home)
16 Jul
Virtus
1 : 0
Dila Gori
09 Jul
Dila Gori
3 : 1
Virtus
30 Jun
Virtus
2 : 3
Vardar
16 May
Virtus
2 : 1
La Fiorita
12 May
SP Domagnano
2 : 1
Virtus
Page 1 of 8

SS Murata

(Away)
26 Apr
Juvenes/Dogana
5 : 2
SS Murata
18 Apr
SS Murata
1 : 4
Fiorentino
12 Apr
Virtus
4 : 1
SS Murata
08 Apr
SS Murata
0 : 3
Tre Fiori
21 Mar
SS Pennarossa
2 : 0
SS Murata
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Tre Fiori 30 22 7 1 63:13 73
2 Virtus 30 22 6 2 76:20 72
3 Tre Penne 30 21 7 2 71:18 70
4 La Fiorita 30 17 11 2 64:25 57
5 Folgore 30 16 9 5 67:33 57
6 SP Domagnano 30 14 7 9 59:36 49
7 Fiorentino 30 14 4 12 37:42 46
8 SP Cosmos 30 11 9 10 30:23 42
9 Juvenes/Dogana 30 9 10 11 36:38 37
10 AC Libertas 30 9 8 13 32:63 35
11 SS Pennarossa 30 8 8 14 29:53 32
12 San Giovanni 30 7 10 13 24:43 31
13 SC Faetano 30 6 4 20 22:55 22
14 San Marino Academy U22 30 3 7 20 23:60 16
15 Cailungo 30 2 5 23 23:71 11
16 SS Murata 30 1 4 25 20:83 -2
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Campionato Sammarinese 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Campionato Sammarinese 2025/2026 (Play Offs)