Sport Picks

Japan

J1 League 2026 Noevir Stadium

V-Varen Nagasaki

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Vissel Kobe play V-Varen Nagasaki in the J1 League 2026. Vissel Kobe are favorites here. Recently, Vissel Kobe averaged 1.59 goals scored and 1.31 conceded. V-Varen Nagasaki averaged 1.39 goals scored and 1.18 conceded. In past meetings, Vissel Kobe won 3, V-Varen Nagasaki won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on May 17, 2026 ended 3:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.20 for Vissel Kobe and 1.00 for V-Varen Nagasaki. This points to a Vissel Kobe double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%

Vissel Kobe

25%

Draws

15%

V-Varen Nagasaki

Draw rate projection: 25% Favored: Vissel Kobe

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

91% / Very High Confidence

Vissel Kobe picked up more points recently compared to V-Varen Nagasaki.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.20 vs 1.00 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 74%

Over 2.5 Goals 53%

Over 3.5 Goals 32%

Over 4.5 Goals 16%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 47%

Vissel Kobe Clean Sheet 23%

V-Varen Nagasaki Clean Sheet 12%

First Half Goal 67%

Second Half Goal 70%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Vissel Kobe	V-Varen Nagasaki
Matches Played	29	28
Wins	16	14
Draws	2	2
Losses	11	12
Goals Scored	1.59	1.39
Goals Conceded	1.31	1.18
Expected Goals (xG)	1.38	1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.63	1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 17, 2026 J1 League

V-Varen Nagasaki vs Vissel Kobe

Possession: 44% - 51% Cards: 4 - 3

3:2

Feb 13, 2026 J1 League

Vissel Kobe vs V-Varen Nagasaki

Possession: 44% - 43% Cards: 1 - 2

2:0

Oct 6, 2018 J1 League

Vissel Kobe vs V-Varen Nagasaki

Possession: 50% - 43% Cards: 4 - 3

1:1

Jul 18, 2018 J1 League

V-Varen Nagasaki vs Vissel Kobe

Possession: 52% - 50% Cards: 4 - 2

0:1

Apr 18, 2018 J.League Cup

V-Varen Nagasaki vs Vissel Kobe

Possession: 59% - 42% Cards: 4 - 2

1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Vissel Kobe Compare

Top Goalscorer Sakai G.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Sasaki D.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.06

Avg xA / game 0.69

V-Varen Nagasaki Compare

Avg xG / game 1.36

Avg xA / game 0.83

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vissel Kobe 59 / 100

V-Varen Nagasaki 16 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Vissel Kobe V-Varen Nagasaki

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Vissel Kobe Win (1)

Secondary Pick Vissel Kobe & Over 2.5

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +15.2%

1.92

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +12.9%

2.13

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Vissel Kobe attacking → ← attacking V-Varen Nagasaki

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Vissel Kobe scored in 72% of their last 29 games.

V-Varen Nagasaki let in goals in 79% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Vissel Kobe went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

V-Varen Nagasaki lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

50 Points in last 5 44

1.38 Goals expected (xG) 1.50

1.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.50

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Kashima Antlers	18	15	3	31:11	45
2	FC Tokyo	18	13	5	32:18	37
3	Machida Zelvia	18	13	5	28:22	37
4	Kawasaki Frontale	18	10	8	26:28	28
5	Verdy	18	10	8	22:26	28
6	Urawa Reds	18	7	11	25:22	25
7	Yokohama F. Marinos	18	6	12	28:31	20
8	Kashiwa Reysol	18	7	11	22:24	20
9	Mito	18	6	12	23:39	18
10	Chiba	18	3	15	18:34	12

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Vissel Kobe	18	11	7	29:25	35
2	Cerezo Osaka	18	11	7	30:21	31
3	Nagoya Grampus	18	10	8	33:31	31
4	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	18	10	8	31:23	30
5	Gamba Osaka	18	10	8	31:25	28
6	Okayama	18	8	10	26:29	26
7	Shimizu S-Pulse	18	8	10	23:25	24
8	Kyoto	18	8	10	22:28	23
9	V-Varen Nagasaki	18	7	11	21:29	21
10	Avispa Fukuoka	18	7	11	21:31	21