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Vitoria Guimaraes B vs Mafra

Portugal Portugal

Liga 3 2025/2026 Academia Vitoria SC, Guimarães
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Match Events

8' Event
Neves L.
Assist: Niang M.
60'
Sub
Beni D. In: Raposo C.
Out: Beni D.
60'
Sub
Matos R. In: Lima A.
Out: Matos R.

AI Match Summary

The Liga 3 2025/2026 game between Vitoria Guimaraes B and Mafra finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Mafra.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Vitoria Guimaraes B
15%
Draws
48%
Mafra
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Mafra

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

48% / Medium Confidence
  • Vitoria Guimaraes B carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Mafra's way, sitting at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
Vitoria Guimaraes B Clean Sheet 15%
Mafra Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Vitoria Guimaraes B Mafra
Matches Played 28 27
Wins 13 12
Draws 6 6
Losses 9 9
Goals Scored 1.25 1.59
Goals Conceded 1.11 1.41
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 Liga 3
Vitoria Guimaraes B vs Mafra
0:2
Mar 8, 2026 Liga 3
Mafra vs Vitoria Guimaraes B
1:2
Jan 28, 2019 Liga Portugal 2
Vitoria Guimaraes B vs Mafra
1:2
Aug 18, 2018 Liga Portugal 2
Mafra vs Vitoria Guimaraes B
2:0
Apr 10, 2016 Liga Portugal 2
Vitoria Guimaraes B vs Mafra
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Vitoria Guimaraes B Compare

Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Mafra Compare

Top Goalscorer Neves L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Niang M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vitoria Guimaraes B 23 / 100
Mafra 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Vitoria Guimaraes B Mafra

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Mafra Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Vitoria Guimaraes B's goal record stands at 82% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Mafra let in goals in 67% of their last 27 matches.

H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Vitoria Guimaraes B remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Vitoria Guimaraes B VS Mafra
1.25 Goals Scored 1.5
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Vitoria Guimaraes B

(Home)
07 Aug
Paredes
3 : 1
Vitoria Guimaraes B
01 Aug
Vitoria Guimaraes B
2 : 0
FC Felgueiras
25 Jul
Chaves
2 : 3
Vitoria Guimaraes B
16 May
Vitoria Guimaraes B
1 : 3
Amarante FC
09 May
Trofense
1 : 1
Vitoria Guimaraes B
Page 1 of 6

Mafra

(Away)
08 Aug
Mafra
5 : 0
Vitoria Sernache
01 Aug
Mafra
1 : 2
Sintrense
25 Jul
Mafra
1 : 0
Alverca
15 Jul
Fredericia
3 : 2
Mafra
11 Jul
Esbjerg
0 : 2
Mafra
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Amarante FC 14 9 4 1 22:11 31
2 Academica 14 8 4 2 23:13 28
3 CF Os Belenenses 14 7 5 2 25:16 26
4 Mafra 14 5 2 7 17:24 17
5 Vitoria Guimaraes B 14 4 5 5 16:17 17
6 Varzim 14 4 2 8 13:19 14
7 Santarem 14 2 4 8 13:20 10
8 Trofense 14 2 4 8 7:16 10
Promotion - Liga Portugal 2 (Main)
Promotion - Liga Portugal 2 2025/2026 (Relegation)