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Vitoria Guimaraes B vs Varzim - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Portugal Portugal

Liga 3 2025/2026 Academia Vitoria SC, Guimarães
Our Tip

Match Events

24'
Rocha R.
33'
da Silva D.
40' Event
Guedes M.

AI Match Summary

Vitoria Guimaraes B in this Liga 3 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 3-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Vitoria Guimaraes B.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Vitoria Guimaraes B
20%
Draws
44%
Varzim
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Varzim

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

44% / Low Confidence
  • Attack-wise there's a gap: Vitoria Guimaraes B at 1.24 per game, Varzim at 1.2.
  • Win probability leans Varzim's way, sitting at 40%.
  • Regular Liga 3 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
Vitoria Guimaraes B Clean Sheet 16%
Varzim Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Vitoria Guimaraes B Varzim
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 12 12
Draws 8 4
Losses 9 14
Goals Scored 1.24 1.2
Goals Conceded 1.1 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 25, 2026 Liga 3
Varzim vs Vitoria Guimaraes B
2:2
Feb 28, 2026 Liga 3
Vitoria Guimaraes B vs Varzim
3:0
Jan 11, 2026 Liga 3
Vitoria Guimaraes B vs Varzim
1:2
Oct 4, 2025 Liga 3
Varzim vs Vitoria Guimaraes B
1:1
Feb 19, 2023 Liga 3
Vitoria Guimaraes B vs Varzim
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Vitoria Guimaraes B Compare

Top Goalscorer Tepe M.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Guedes M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Varzim Compare

Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vitoria Guimaraes B 28 / 100
Varzim 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Vitoria Guimaraes B Varzim

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Varzim Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Vitoria Guimaraes B scored in 79% of their last 29 outings.

Varzim let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Vitoria Guimaraes B stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Vitoria Guimaraes B VS Varzim
1.13 Goals Scored 2
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.88
63% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Vitoria Guimaraes B

(Home)
12 Sept
AD Marco 09
1 : 0
Vitoria Guimaraes B
05 Sept
Vitoria Guimaraes B
0 : 0
Trofense
21 Aug
AD Fafe
1 : 1
Vitoria Guimaraes B
15 Aug
Vitoria Guimaraes B
2 : 0
Leca
07 Aug
Paredes
3 : 1
Vitoria Guimaraes B
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Varzim

(Away)
19 Sept
Vitoria Sernache
2 : 1
Varzim
12 Sept
Varzim
1 : 2
SC Vianense
05 Sept
Varzim
0 : 1
Paredes
29 Aug
Varzim
5 : 1
Trofense
22 Aug
Pacos Ferreira
1 : 4
Varzim
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Amarante FC 14 9 4 1 22:11 31
2 Academica 14 8 4 2 23:13 28
3 CF Os Belenenses 14 7 5 2 25:16 26
4 Mafra 14 5 2 7 17:24 17
5 Vitoria Guimaraes B 14 4 5 5 16:17 17
6 Varzim 14 4 2 8 13:19 14
7 Santarem 14 2 4 8 13:20 10
8 Trofense 14 2 4 8 7:16 10
Promotion - Liga Portugal 2 (Main)
Promotion - Liga Portugal 2 2025/2026 (Relegation)