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Vitoria Guimaraes U19 vs Chaves U19

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato Nacional U19
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Vitoria Guimaraes U19 play Chaves U19 in the Campeonato Nacional U19. It looks like a close match. Recently, Vitoria Guimaraes U19 averaged 1.43 goals scored and 1.7 conceded. Chaves U19 averaged 0.7 goals scored and 1.8 conceded. In past meetings, Vitoria Guimaraes U19 won 1, Chaves U19 won 1, and they drew 3. Their last match on Apr 3, 2026 ended 2:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.94 for Vitoria Guimaraes U19 and 1.44 for Chaves U19. This points to a Vitoria Guimaraes U19 double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%
Vitoria Guimaraes U19
35%
Draws
20%
Chaves U19
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Vitoria Guimaraes U19

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

81% / High Confidence
  • Vitoria Guimaraes U19 picked up more points recently compared to Chaves U19.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.94 vs 1.44 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 71%
Over 2.5 Goals 55%
Over 3.5 Goals 33%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 57%
Vitoria Guimaraes U19 Clean Sheet 16%
Chaves U19 Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 64%
Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Vitoria Guimaraes U19 Chaves U19
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 11 3
Draws 6 9
Losses 13 18
Goals Scored 1.43 0.7
Goals Conceded 1.7 1.8
Expected Goals (xG) 2.38 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.88 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 3, 2026 Campeonato Nacional U19
Chaves U19 vs Vitoria Guimaraes U19
2:1
Feb 7, 2026 Campeonato Nacional U19
Vitoria Guimaraes U19 vs Chaves U19
1:1
Dec 13, 2025 Campeonato Nacional U19
Chaves U19 vs Vitoria Guimaraes U19
0:1
Aug 30, 2025 Campeonato Nacional U19
Vitoria Guimaraes U19 vs Chaves U19
0:0
Nov 30, 2024 Campeonato Nacional U19
Vitoria Guimaraes U19 vs Chaves U19
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Vitoria Guimaraes U19 Compare

Top Goalscorer Venancio R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.83
Avg xA / game 1.19

Chaves U19 Compare

Top Goalscorer Costa P.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vitoria Guimaraes U19 44 / 100
Chaves U19 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Vitoria Guimaraes U19 Chaves U19

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Vitoria Guimaraes U19 or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +21.5%
2.70
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.2%
2.04
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Vitoria Guimaraes U19 attacking → ← attacking Chaves U19

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Vitoria Guimaraes U19 scored in 83% of their last 30 games.

Chaves U19 let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Vitoria Guimaraes U19 went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Chaves U19 lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

39 Points in last 5 18
2.38 Goals expected (xG) 1.00
1.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.50