Sport Picks

Portugal

Liga Portugal 2025/2026 Estádio D. Afonso Henriques

Famalicao

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Vitoria Guimaraes play Famalicao in the Liga Portugal 2025/2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Vitoria Guimaraes averaged 1.38 goals scored and 1.34 conceded. Famalicao averaged 1.43 goals scored and 1.07 conceded. In past meetings, Vitoria Guimaraes won 2, Famalicao won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on Mar 14, 2026 ended 1:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.25 for Vitoria Guimaraes and 1.50 for Famalicao. This points to a Famalicao double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%

Vitoria Guimaraes

20%

Draws

41%

Famalicao

Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Famalicao

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / Medium Confidence

Vitoria Guimaraes picked up more points recently compared to Famalicao.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.25 vs 1.50 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 63%

Over 2.5 Goals 50%

Over 3.5 Goals 30%

Over 4.5 Goals 15%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 44%

Vitoria Guimaraes Clean Sheet 16%

Famalicao Clean Sheet 11%

First Half Goal 57%

Second Half Goal 60%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Vitoria Guimaraes	Famalicao
Matches Played	29	28
Wins	13	13
Draws	4	7
Losses	12	8
Goals Scored	1.38	1.43
Goals Conceded	1.34	1.07
Expected Goals (xG)	1.63	1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.25	0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 14, 2026 Liga Portugal

Vitoria Guimaraes vs Famalicao

Possession: 41% - 44% Cards: 0 - 2

1:2

Oct 26, 2025 Liga Portugal

Famalicao vs Vitoria Guimaraes

Possession: 53% - 41% Cards: 2 - 0

2:0

Feb 8, 2025 Liga Portugal

Famalicao vs Vitoria Guimaraes

Possession: 57% - 53% Cards: 0 - 3

0:0

Sep 1, 2024 Liga Portugal

Vitoria Guimaraes vs Famalicao

Possession: 45% - 48% Cards: 0 - 1

2:1

Mar 9, 2024 Liga Portugal

Vitoria Guimaraes vs Famalicao

Possession: 47% - 49% Cards: 1 - 1

1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Vitoria Guimaraes Compare

Top Goalscorer Samu

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.25

Avg xA / game 0.81

Famalicao Compare

Top Goalscorer De Haas J.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Sorriso

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.59

Avg xA / game 0.97

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vitoria Guimaraes 38 / 100

Famalicao 39 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Vitoria Guimaraes Famalicao

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Famalicao or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +26%

3.23

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +13.5%

2.27

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Vitoria Guimaraes attacking → ← attacking Famalicao

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Vitoria Guimaraes scored in 72% of their last 29 games.

Famalicao let in goals in 57% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 1.80 goals.

Vitoria Guimaraes went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Famalicao lost 0 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

43 Points in last 5 46

1.63 Goals expected (xG) 1.75

1.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.88

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC Porto	34	28	4	2	66:18	88
2	Sporting CP	34	25	7	2	89:24	82
3	Benfica	34	23	11	0	74:25	80
4	Braga	34	16	11	7	64:36	59
5	Famalicao	34	15	11	8	42:29	56
6	Gil Vicente	34	13	11	10	47:38	50
7	Moreirense	34	12	7	15	37:49	43
8	Arouca	34	12	6	16	47:64	42
9	Vitoria Guimaraes	34	12	6	16	39:51	42
10	Estoril	34	10	9	15	54:57	39
11	Alverca	34	10	9	15	35:52	39
12	Rio Ave	34	8	12	14	35:57	36
13	Santa Clara	34	9	9	16	32:41	36
14	Nacional	34	9	7	18	37:45	34
15	Estrela da Amadora	34	6	12	16	38:56	30
16	Casa Pia	34	6	12	16	31:57	30
17	Tondela	34	6	10	18	27:55	28
18	AFS	34	3	12	19	27:67	21