Sport Picks
Vitoria Sernache vs Covilha - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Portugal
Liga 3 Estádio Municipal Nuno Álvares Pereira, Cernache do Bonjardim 
Match Events
3'
3'
Ekanga Ondoa H. O.
22'
22'
Sub
Mendes R. In: Aidara M.
Out: Mendes R.
24'
24'
Matheus Matias
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this Liga 3 matchup, with the score ending 0-0.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
60%
20%
20%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Vitoria Sernache
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
60%
/ High Confidence
- Form's been kind to Vitoria Sernache lately — more wins on the board than Covilha.
- Model gives Vitoria Sernache a 60% chance of winning this.
- Regular Liga 3 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
Vitoria Sernache Clean Sheet 68%
Covilha Clean Sheet 15%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Vitoria Sernache | Covilha |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 28 |
| Wins | 13 | 7 |
| Draws | 9 | 9 |
| Losses | 7 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 1.07 | 0.82 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.93 | 1.29 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 16, 2026 Liga 3
Vitoria Sernache vs Covilha
0:0
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Vitoria Sernache 68 / 100
Covilha 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Vitoria Sernache Covilha
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Vitoria Sernache Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Vitoria Sernache's goal record stands at 66% scoring rate across 29 recent games.
Covilha's defensive record shows goals conceded in 79% of 28 matches.
Difficult form: Covilha registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.
Historical meetings average 0.00 goals per match.
Scoring Trends
Vitoria Sernache VS Covilha
1.13 Goals Scored 0.5
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.88
75% Over 1.5 38%
63% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Vitoria Sernache
(Home) 19 Sept
Vitoria Sernache
2 : 1 Varzim
13 Sept
Caldas SC
2 : 0 Vitoria Sernache
06 Sept
Vitoria Sernache
1 : 3 CF Os Belenenses
30 Aug
GD Os Nazarenos
0 : 3 Vitoria Sernache
23 Aug
Oliveirense
3 : 2 Vitoria Sernache
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
Vitoria Sernache
2 : 1 Varzim
06 Sept
Vitoria Sernache
1 : 3 CF Os Belenenses
16 Aug
Vitoria Sernache
0 : 0 Covilha
31 May
Vitoria Sernache
1 : 1 Louletano
17 May
Vitoria Sernache
0 : 0 Oliveira Hospital
Page 1 of 3
Covilha
(Away) 12 Sept
Lusitano GC
2 : 2 Covilha
05 Sept
Mafra
1 : 0 Covilha
30 Aug
Covilha
0 : 1 Mortagua FC
22 Aug
Covilha
0 : 3 Atletico CP
16 Aug
Vitoria Sernache
0 : 0 Covilha
Page 1 of 6
12 Sept
Lusitano GC
2 : 2 Covilha
05 Sept
Mafra
1 : 0 Covilha
16 Aug
Vitoria Sernache
0 : 0 Covilha
25 Apr
Caldas SC
1 : 1 Covilha
18 Apr
Lusitano GC
1 : 0 Covilha
Page 1 of 3
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paredes | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8:4 | 12 |
| 2 | AD Marco 09 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6:3 | 10 |
| 3 | Varzim | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8:5 | 9 |
| 4 | AD Fafe | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8:4 | 8 |
| 5 | SC Vianense | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6:5 | 8 |
| 6 | Leca | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7:8 | 7 |
| 7 | Vitoria Guimaraes B | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4:5 | 5 |
| 8 | Trofense | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2:7 | 4 |
| 9 | Sao Joao de Ver | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3:6 | 3 |
| 10 | Pacos Ferreira | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5:10 | 2 |
Promotion - Liga 3 (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Liga 3 (Relegation Group)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CF Os Belenenses | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 13:2 | 15 |
| 2 | Atletico CP | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8:3 | 10 |
| 3 | Oliveirense | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7:7 | 8 |
| 4 | Mafra | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9:5 | 7 |
| 5 | Louletano | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7:7 | 7 |
| 6 | Caldas SC | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5:5 | 7 |
| 7 | Lusitano GC | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4:5 | 5 |
| 8 | Covilha | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4:6 | 5 |
| 9 | Santarem | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3:10 | 4 |
| 10 | Vitoria Sernache | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3:13 | 1 |
Promotion - Liga 3 (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Liga 3 (Relegation Group)
