Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Vitoria Sernache vs GD Peniche

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2025/2026
Vitoria Sernache Logo

Vitoria Sernache

0 - 1
FT
GD Peniche Logo

GD Peniche

Our Tip

Match Events

26' Event
Ferreira T.
90'
Palma I.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2025/2026 game between Vitoria Sernache and GD Peniche finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward GD Peniche.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Vitoria Sernache
15%
Draws
28%
GD Peniche
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Vitoria Sernache

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • GD Peniche haven't matched Vitoria Sernache's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Vitoria Sernache's way, sitting at 70%.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.6%
Vitoria Sernache Clean Sheet 68%
GD Peniche Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Vitoria Sernache GD Peniche
Matches Played 34 30
Wins 16 9
Draws 10 7
Losses 8 14
Goals Scored 1.09 1.57
Goals Conceded 0.88 1.7
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 15, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
GD Peniche vs Vitoria Sernache
0:1
Nov 9, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Vitoria Sernache vs GD Peniche
0:1
Mar 17, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
GD Peniche vs Vitoria Sernache
2:0
Dec 3, 2023 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Vitoria Sernache vs GD Peniche
0:1
May 1, 2022 Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
GD Peniche vs Vitoria Sernache
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Vitoria Sernache Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

GD Peniche Compare

Top Goalscorer Ferreira T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vitoria Sernache 77 / 100
GD Peniche 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Vitoria Sernache GD Peniche

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Vitoria Sernache Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Vitoria Sernache scored in 65% of their last 34 outings.

Defensive concern: GD Peniche conceded in 77% of 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 1.60 goals when they meet.

GD Peniche lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Vitoria Sernache VS GD Peniche
1.25 Goals Scored 2
0.75 Goals Conceded 2
63% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 67%
13% Over 3.5 67%

Recent Form & Match History

Vitoria Sernache

(Home)
19 Sept
Vitoria Sernache
2 : 1
Varzim
13 Sept
Caldas SC
2 : 0
Vitoria Sernache
06 Sept
Vitoria Sernache
1 : 3
CF Os Belenenses
30 Aug
GD Os Nazarenos
0 : 3
Vitoria Sernache
23 Aug
Oliveirense
3 : 2
Vitoria Sernache
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GD Peniche

(Away)
18 Apr
GD Peniche
5 : 1
SC Lusitania
12 Apr
Uniao Da Serra
3 : 1
GD Peniche
04 Apr
GD Peniche
0 : 2
SB Castelo Branco
29 Mar
Samora Correia
5 : 2
GD Peniche
22 Mar
Electrico FC
4 : 2
GD Peniche
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vitoria Sernache 26 16 7 3 33:12 55
2 Oliveira Hospital 26 14 8 4 39:13 50
3 Naval 1893 26 14 6 6 36:23 48
4 SB Castelo Branco 26 14 4 8 43:26 46
5 Uniao Da Serra 26 12 8 6 38:27 44
6 Mortagua FC 26 11 6 9 23:26 39
7 Os Marialvas 26 10 6 10 33:28 36
8 Fatima 26 8 8 10 27:29 32
9 Lajense 26 8 8 10 37:37 32
10 GD Peniche 26 8 6 12 34:43 30
11 Samora Correia 26 8 5 13 27:35 29
12 Marinhense 26 5 9 12 20:38 24
13 Electrico FC 26 5 4 17 33:62 19
14 SC Lusitania 26 4 5 17 24:48 17
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2025/2026 (Promotion Group)