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Vitoria Sernache vs Samora Correia - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

20' Event
Henrique Cavalcante

AI Match Summary

Vitoria Sernache in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Vitoria Sernache.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Vitoria Sernache
15%
Draws
57%
Samora Correia
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Samora Correia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Vitoria Sernache have won more games recently than Samora Correia.
  • Model gives Samora Correia a 57% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 16.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 7%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
Vitoria Sernache Clean Sheet 13%
Samora Correia Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Vitoria Sernache Samora Correia
Matches Played 30 27
Wins 14 8
Draws 9 5
Losses 7 14
Goals Scored 1.07 1.04
Goals Conceded 0.9 1.37
Expected Goals (xG) 1.23 1.65
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 21, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Vitoria Sernache vs Samora Correia
1:0
Nov 29, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Samora Correia vs Vitoria Sernache
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Vitoria Sernache Compare

Top Goalscorer Henrique Cavalcante
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.95
Avg xA / game 0.61

Samora Correia Compare

Avg xG / game 1.5
Avg xA / game 0.92

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vitoria Sernache 22 / 100
Samora Correia 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Vitoria Sernache Samora Correia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Samora Correia Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Samora Correia let in goals in 85% of their last 27 matches.

Vitoria Sernache found the back of the net in 67% of recent matches (30 games).

Games between these two average 1.00 goals.

Solid form: Vitoria Sernache remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Vitoria Sernache VS Samora Correia
1.13 Goals Scored 2.67
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.33
63% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 100%
0% Over 3.5 33%

Recent Form & Match History

Vitoria Sernache

(Home)
19 Sept
Vitoria Sernache
2 : 1
Varzim
13 Sept
Caldas SC
2 : 0
Vitoria Sernache
06 Sept
Vitoria Sernache
1 : 3
CF Os Belenenses
30 Aug
GD Os Nazarenos
0 : 3
Vitoria Sernache
23 Aug
Oliveirense
3 : 2
Vitoria Sernache
Page 1 of 6

Samora Correia

(Away)
18 Apr
Samora Correia
4 : 2
Uniao Da Serra
12 Apr
SB Castelo Branco
1 : 2
Samora Correia
04 Apr
Samora Correia
2 : 1
Electrico FC
29 Mar
Samora Correia
5 : 2
GD Peniche
21 Mar
Vitoria Sernache
1 : 0
Samora Correia
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vitoria Sernache 26 16 7 3 33:12 55
2 Oliveira Hospital 26 14 8 4 39:13 50
3 Naval 1893 26 14 6 6 36:23 48
4 SB Castelo Branco 26 14 4 8 43:26 46
5 Uniao Da Serra 26 12 8 6 38:27 44
6 Mortagua FC 26 11 6 9 23:26 39
7 Os Marialvas 26 10 6 10 33:28 36
8 Fatima 26 8 8 10 27:29 32
9 Lajense 26 8 8 10 37:37 32
10 GD Peniche 26 8 6 12 34:43 30
11 Samora Correia 26 8 5 13 27:35 29
12 Marinhense 26 5 9 12 20:38 24
13 Electrico FC 26 5 4 17 33:62 19
14 SC Lusitania 26 4 5 17 24:48 17
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2025/2026 (Promotion Group)