Sport Picks

Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C

Vitoria Sernache

2 - 1

SC Lusitania

Our Tip

Match Events

14'

Sousa M.

(Penalty)

19'

Dias A.

29'

Dias A.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Campeonato de Portugal - Group C game between Vitoria Sernache and SC Lusitania finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Vitoria Sernache.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%

Vitoria Sernache

Draws

SC Lusitania

Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Vitoria Sernache

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence

Look at the last few games and Vitoria Sernache come out ahead of SC Lusitania on wins alone.
Win probability leans Vitoria Sernache's way, sitting at 90%.
Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group C form gives a decent read on both sides.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 23%

Over 4.5 Goals 10%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%

Vitoria Sernache Clean Sheet 68%

SC Lusitania Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Vitoria Sernache	SC Lusitania
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	16	5
Draws	10	6
Losses	4	19
Goals Scored	0.88	0.67
Goals Conceded	0.75	2.33
Expected Goals (xG)	0.88	0.67
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.75	2.33

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 22, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C

Vitoria Sernache vs SC Lusitania

Possession: 53% - 55% Cards: 2 - 2

2:1

Oct 5, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C

SC Lusitania vs Vitoria Sernache

Possession: 44% - 60% Cards: 0 - 2

2:4

Feb 10, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C

SC Lusitania vs Vitoria Sernache

Possession: 46% - 52% Cards: 2 - 2

1:0

Oct 8, 2023 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C

Vitoria Sernache vs SC Lusitania

Possession: 45% - 44% Cards: 2 - 1

0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Vitoria Sernache Compare

Top Goalscorer Dias A.

2 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.68

Avg xA / game 0.44

SC Lusitania Compare

Avg xG / game 0.61

Avg xA / game 0.37

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vitoria Sernache 95 / 100

SC Lusitania 10 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Vitoria Sernache SC Lusitania

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick VIT Win (1)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS No

Correct Score 3:0

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: SC Lusitania conceded in 90% of 30 recent games.

Attacking prowess: Vitoria Sernache scored in 67% of their last 30 outings.

Games between these two average 2.50 goals.

Vitoria Sernache went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Vitoria Sernache VS SC Lusitania

0.88 Goals Scored 0.67

0.75 Goals Conceded 2.33

38% Over 1.5 83%

25% Over 2.5 50%

13% Over 3.5 33%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vitoria Sernache	26	16	7	3	33:12	55
2	Oliveira Hospital	26	14	8	4	39:13	50
3	Naval 1893	26	14	6	6	36:23	48
4	SB Castelo Branco	26	14	4	8	43:26	46
5	Uniao Da Serra	26	12	8	6	38:27	44
6	Mortagua FC	26	11	6	9	23:26	39
7	Os Marialvas	26	10	6	10	33:28	36
8	Fatima	26	8	8	10	27:29	32
9	Lajense	26	8	8	10	37:37	32
10	GD Peniche	26	8	6	12	34:43	30
11	Samora Correia	26	8	5	13	27:35	29
12	Marinhense	26	5	9	12	20:38	24
13	Electrico FC	26	5	4	17	33:62	19
14	SC Lusitania	26	4	5	17	24:48	17