Sport Picks
Vitoria Setubal vs Fabril do Barreiro
Portugal
Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2023/2024 Estádio do Bonfim, Setúbal 
Match Events
7'
7'
Joca
66'
66'
Lopez I.
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2023/2024 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
28%
35%
37%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Fabril do Barreiro
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
37%
/ Low Confidence
- Vitoria Setubal have won more games recently than Fabril do Barreiro.
- 37% — that's where the model lands on Fabril do Barreiro taking it.
- Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2023/2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 42.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 19%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Vitoria Setubal Clean Sheet 20%
Fabril do Barreiro Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Vitoria Setubal | Fabril do Barreiro |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 31 |
| Wins | 15 | 7 |
| Draws | 6 | 11 |
| Losses | 9 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 1.5 | 0.84 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.13 | 1.23 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.43 | 1.09 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 24, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Vitoria Setubal vs Fabril do Barreiro
1:1
Dec 9, 2023 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Fabril do Barreiro vs Vitoria Setubal
0:1
Feb 8, 1976 Liga Portugal
Fabril do Barreiro vs Vitoria Setubal
1:1
Oct 5, 1975 Liga Portugal
Vitoria Setubal vs Fabril do Barreiro
0:0
Jan 19, 1975 Liga Portugal
Fabril do Barreiro vs Vitoria Setubal
0:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Vitoria Setubal Compare
Top Goalscorer Joca
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.1
Avg xA / game 0.71
Fabril do Barreiro Compare
Top Goalscorer Lopez I.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.99
Avg xA / game 0.61
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Vitoria Setubal 12 / 100
Fabril do Barreiro 74 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Vitoria Setubal Fabril do Barreiro
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Fabril do Barreiro Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Vitoria Setubal scored in 87% of their last 30 outings.
Fabril do Barreiro has conceded goals in 77% of their last 31 outings.
Recent resilience: Vitoria Setubal stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.
Games between these two average 1.40 goals.
Scoring Trends
Vitoria Setubal VS Fabril do Barreiro
1.6 Goals Scored 0.38
1.8 Goals Conceded 1.25
80% Over 1.5 38%
60% Over 2.5 25%
60% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Vitoria Setubal
(Home) 20 Sept
Alcains
0 : 2 Vitoria Setubal
13 Sept
Vitoria Setubal
2 : 2 Juv. Evora
06 Sept
Lajense
0 : 1 Vitoria Setubal
23 Aug
Vitoria Setubal
1 : 3 Amora
16 Aug
Serpa
4 : 2 Vitoria Setubal
Page 1 of 6
13 Sept
Vitoria Setubal
2 : 2 Juv. Evora
23 Aug
Vitoria Setubal
1 : 3 Amora
10 Jun
Vitoria Setubal
0 : 3 Amarante FC
25 May
Vitoria Setubal
1 : 0 Moncarapachense
05 May
Vitoria Setubal
3 : 1 SC Lusitania
Page 1 of 3
Fabril do Barreiro
(Away) 13 Apr
Fabril do Barreiro
2 : 1 Louletano
06 Apr
Industria
2 : 2 Fabril do Barreiro
29 Mar
Fabril do Barreiro
0 : 0 Moncarapachense
16 Mar
Estrela Vendas Novas
1 : 4 Fabril do Barreiro
09 Mar
Fabril do Barreiro
1 : 1 FC Barreirense
Page 1 of 7
06 Apr
Industria
2 : 2 Fabril do Barreiro
16 Mar
Estrela Vendas Novas
1 : 4 Fabril do Barreiro
23 Feb
Lusitano GC
4 : 0 Fabril do Barreiro
09 Feb
Moura AC
0 : 1 Fabril do Barreiro
26 Jan
Lagoa
2 : 0 Fabril do Barreiro
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vitoria Setubal | 26 | 16 | 5 | 5 | 45:21 | 53 |
| 2 | Moncarapachense | 26 | 14 | 7 | 5 | 29:17 | 49 |
| 3 | Lusitano GC | 26 | 11 | 13 | 2 | 28:9 | 46 |
| 4 | Louletano | 26 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 37:26 | 41 |
| 5 | Sintrense | 26 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 29:26 | 40 |
| 6 | O Elvas CAD | 26 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 34:27 | 39 |
| 7 | FC Barreirense | 26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 31:25 | 39 |
| 8 | Fabril do Barreiro | 26 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 29:24 | 34 |
| 9 | Serpa | 26 | 10 | 4 | 12 | 27:30 | 34 |
| 10 | Juv. Evora | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 26:25 | 32 |
| 11 | Vasco da Gama Vidigueira | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 26:45 | 30 |
| 12 | Oriental | 26 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 31:48 | 29 |
| 13 | Real SC | 26 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 24:46 | 14 |
| 14 | Imortal | 26 | 2 | 7 | 17 | 19:46 | 13 |
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Promotion Group 2023/2024 (Main)
