Sport Picks

Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Promotion Group 2023/2024 Estádio do Bonfim, Setúbal

Vitoria Setubal

1 - 0

Moncarapachense

Our Tip

Match Events

53'

Antunes M.

(Penalty)

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Vitoria Setubal in this Campeonato de Portugal - Promotion Group 2023/2024 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Vitoria Setubal.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%

Vitoria Setubal

20%

Draws

40%

Moncarapachense

Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence

Form's been kind to Vitoria Setubal lately — more wins on the board than Moncarapachense.
Moncarapachense are the model's pick here, at 70%.
This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 87%

Over 1.5 Goals 77.5%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 22%

Over 4.5 Goals 10%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%

Vitoria Setubal Clean Sheet 18%

Moncarapachense Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Vitoria Setubal	Moncarapachense
Matches Played	30	33
Wins	15	9
Draws	6	10
Losses	9	14
Goals Scored	1.5	0.85
Goals Conceded	1.13	0.97
Expected Goals (xG)	1.68	1.34
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.10	1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 25, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Promotion Group

Vitoria Setubal vs Moncarapachense

1:0

Apr 28, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Promotion Group

Moncarapachense vs Vitoria Setubal

1:2

Jan 21, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D

Moncarapachense vs Vitoria Setubal

0:1

Sep 3, 2023 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D

Vitoria Setubal vs Moncarapachense

1:2

Jan 28, 2023 Liga 3

Vitoria Setubal vs Moncarapachense

2:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vitoria Setubal 15 / 100

Moncarapachense 77 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Vitoria Setubal Moncarapachense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Moncarapachense Win (2)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No

Correct Score 0:1

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Vitoria Setubal found the back of the net in 87% of recent matches (30 games).

Moncarapachense let in goals in 67% of their last 33 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

Vitoria Setubal has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Vitoria Setubal VS Moncarapachense

1.6 Goals Scored 0.88

1.8 Goals Conceded 1.75

80% Over 1.5 75%

60% Over 2.5 50%

60% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Vitoria Setubal

(Home)

20 Sept

Alcains

0 : 2

Vitoria Setubal

13 Sept

Vitoria Setubal

2 : 2

Juv. Evora

06 Sept

Lajense

0 : 1

Vitoria Setubal

23 Aug

Vitoria Setubal

1 : 3

Amora

16 Aug

Serpa

4 : 2

Vitoria Setubal

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Moncarapachense

(Away)

18 Apr

O Elvas CAD

0 : 0

Moncarapachense

12 Apr

Moncarapachense

0 : 1

Juv. Evora

04 Apr

Louletano

1 : 0

Moncarapachense

22 Mar

Moncarapachense

2 : 0

Sintrense

15 Mar

Portimonense B

0 : 3

Moncarapachense

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