Sport Picks

Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Promotion Group 2023/2024 Estádio do Bonfim, Setúbal

Vitoria Setubal

2 - 1

Santarem

Our Tip

Match Events

25'

Eli

34'

Apolinario R.

49'

Sequeira D.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Campeonato de Portugal - Promotion Group 2023/2024 game between Vitoria Setubal and Santarem finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Vitoria Setubal.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%

Vitoria Setubal

20%

Draws

40%

Santarem

Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence

Look at the last few games and Vitoria Setubal come out ahead of Santarem on wins alone.
Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 38%

Over 3.5 Goals 22%

Over 4.5 Goals 10%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%

Vitoria Setubal Clean Sheet 19%

Santarem Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Vitoria Setubal	Santarem
Matches Played	30	32
Wins	15	7
Draws	6	12
Losses	9	13
Goals Scored	1.5	0.94
Goals Conceded	1.13	1.16
Expected Goals (xG)	1.43	1.27
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.10	1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 19, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Promotion Group

Santarem vs Vitoria Setubal

0:0

Apr 21, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Promotion Group

Vitoria Setubal vs Santarem

2:1

Jan 24, 2022 Liga 3

Santarem vs Vitoria Setubal

4:1

Jan 20, 2022 Liga 3

Vitoria Setubal vs Santarem

3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Vitoria Setubal Compare

Top Goalscorer Eli

1 Goals

Assists Leader Sequeira D.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.1

Avg xA / game 0.71

Santarem Compare

Top Goalscorer Apolinario R.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.15

Avg xA / game 0.71

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vitoria Setubal 32 / 100

Santarem 28 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Vitoria Setubal Santarem

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes

Correct Score 1:1

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Vitoria Setubal scored in 87% of their last 30 outings.

Santarem's defensive record shows goals conceded in 78% of 32 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Vitoria Setubal went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Vitoria Setubal VS Santarem

1.6 Goals Scored 0.75

1.8 Goals Conceded 1.25

80% Over 1.5 63%

60% Over 2.5 25%

60% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Vitoria Setubal

(Home)

20 Sept

Alcains

0 : 2

Vitoria Setubal

13 Sept

Vitoria Setubal

2 : 2

Juv. Evora

06 Sept

Lajense

0 : 1

Vitoria Setubal

23 Aug

Vitoria Setubal

1 : 3

Amora

16 Aug

Serpa

4 : 2

Vitoria Setubal

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Santarem

(Away)

20 Sept

Santarem

5 : 0

Merelinense

12 Sept

Louletano

1 : 2

Santarem

04 Sept

Santarem

0 : 1

Caldas SC

22 Aug

CF Os Belenenses

5 : 0

Santarem

14 Aug

Santarem

1 : 1

Oliveirense

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