Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Vitoria vs Vasco

Brazil Brazil

Serie A Betano Barradao
Thu, Jul 16, 2026
VS
10:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Vitoria play Vasco in the Serie A Betano. It looks like a close match. Recently, Vitoria averaged 1.9 goals scored and 1.31 conceded. Vasco averaged 1.38 goals scored and 1.31 conceded. In past meetings, Vitoria won 2, Vasco won 3, and they drew 0. Their last match on Oct 5, 2025 ended 4:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.06 for Vitoria and 1.50 for Vasco. This points to a Vitoria double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

49%
Vitoria
15%
Draws
36%
Vasco
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Vitoria

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

75% / High Confidence
  • Vitoria picked up more points recently compared to Vasco.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.06 vs 1.50 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 62%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 84%
Over 2.5 Goals 62%
Over 3.5 Goals 37%
Over 4.5 Goals 19%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 62%
Vitoria Clean Sheet 16%
Vasco Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 76%
Second Half Goal 80%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Vitoria Vasco
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 16 11
Draws 5 8
Losses 8 10
Goals Scored 1.9 1.38
Goals Conceded 1.31 1.31
Expected Goals (xG) 2.25 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 1.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 5, 2025 Serie A Betano
Vasco vs Vitoria
4:3
May 10, 2025 Serie A Betano
Vitoria vs Vasco
2:1
Sep 1, 2024 Serie A Betano
Vitoria vs Vasco
0:1
May 12, 2024 Serie A Betano
Vasco vs Vitoria
2:1
Nov 11, 2021 Serie B
Vasco vs Vitoria
0:3

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vitoria 47 / 100
Vasco 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Vitoria Vasco

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Vitoria or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +19.6%
2.44
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11%
1.79
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Vitoria attacking → ← attacking Vasco

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Vitoria scored in 86% of their last 29 games.

Vasco let in goals in 79% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

Vitoria went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Vasco lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

53 Points in last 5 41
2.25 Goals expected (xG) 1.50
1.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.88

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Palmeiras18125130:1341
2Flamengo RJ17104331:1634
3Fluminense1894528:2331
4Athletico-PR1893624:1830
5Bragantino1892725:1929
6Bahia1775525:2326
7Coritiba1875624:2426
8Sao Paulo1874723:2025
9Atletico-MG1873822:2324
10Corinthians1866618:1924
11Cruzeiro1866624:2824
12Botafogo RJ1764731:3122
13Vitoria1764721:2522
14Internacional1856721:2221
15Santos1856726:2921
16Gremio1856720:2321
17Vasco1855822:2920
18Remo1846821:2918
19Mirassol1744918:2416
20Chapecoense-SC17161017:339