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Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro vs San Donato Tavarnelle

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group E
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro play San Donato Tavarnelle in the Serie D - Group E. It looks like a close match. Recently, Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro averaged 0.53 goals scored and 1.37 conceded. San Donato Tavarnelle averaged 0.73 goals scored and 1.03 conceded. In past meetings, Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro won 2, San Donato Tavarnelle won 1, and they drew 2. Their last match on Mar 1, 2026 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.94 for Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro and 1.06 for San Donato Tavarnelle. This points to a San Donato Tavarnelle double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

25%
Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro
35%
Draws
40%
San Donato Tavarnelle
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: San Donato Tavarnelle

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro picked up more points recently compared to San Donato Tavarnelle.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.94 vs 1.06 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 60%
Over 2.5 Goals 18%
Over 3.5 Goals 11%
Over 4.5 Goals 5%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 38%
Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro Clean Sheet 22%
San Donato Tavarnelle Clean Sheet 16%
First Half Goal 54%
Second Half Goal 57%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro San Donato Tavarnelle
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 1 6
Draws 14 12
Losses 15 12
Goals Scored 0.53 0.73
Goals Conceded 1.37 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 1, 2026 Serie D - Group E
Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro vs San Donato Tavarnelle
1:1
Oct 26, 2025 Serie D - Group E
San Donato Tavarnelle vs Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro
1:0
May 5, 2024 Serie D - Group E
San Donato Tavarnelle vs Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro
1:1
Dec 20, 2023 Serie D - Group E
Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro vs San Donato Tavarnelle
2:1
Jan 18, 2015 Serie D - Group E
Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro vs San Donato Tavarnelle
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro Compare

Top Goalscorer Vitiello D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

San Donato Tavarnelle Compare

Top Goalscorer Perugi S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro 27 / 100
San Donato Tavarnelle 39 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro San Donato Tavarnelle

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: San Donato Tavarnelle or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +47%
5.88
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +49.9%
8.33
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro attacking → ← attacking San Donato Tavarnelle

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro scored in 43% of their last 30 games.

San Donato Tavarnelle let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

San Donato Tavarnelle lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

17 Points in last 5 30
0.75 Goals expected (xG) 0.63
1.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.13

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Grosseto34226658:2572
2Tau34189753:3363
3Prato34205949:2963
4Siena34179857:3560
5Seravezza Pozzi341512742:2957
6Terranuova Traiana341491128:3051
7Foligno341491145:3751
8Scandicci341115839:3248
9Montevarchi341016828:3246
10Sporting Trestina3410121240:4242
11San Donato Tavarnelle349131230:3540
12Ghiviborgo3410101442:4440
13Orvietana349111433:3738
14Follonica Gavorrano349101536:4937
15Camaiore Calcio34981741:5435
16Poggibonsi347101729:4631
17Cannara34682024:5926
18Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro342161620:4622