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Vogherese vs Oltrepo

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group B 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

38' Event
Hrom D.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

Oltrepo in this Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Oltrepo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
Vogherese
15%
Draws
85%
Oltrepo
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Oltrepo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Oltrepo lately — more wins on the board than Vogherese.
  • Win probability leans Oltrepo's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Vogherese Clean Sheet 10%
Oltrepo Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Vogherese Oltrepo
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 2 13
Draws 6 7
Losses 22 10
Goals Scored 0.63 1.07
Goals Conceded 2.53 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 2.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 4, 2026 Serie D - Group B
Vogherese vs Oltrepo
0:1
Sep 7, 2025 Serie D - Group B
Oltrepo vs Vogherese
1:0
May 4, 2025 Serie D - Group A
Vogherese vs Oltrepo
3:1
Dec 22, 2024 Serie D - Group A
Oltrepo vs Vogherese
2:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vogherese 10 / 100
Oltrepo 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Vogherese Oltrepo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Oltrepo Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Oltrepo's defensive record shows goals conceded in 60% of 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.50 goals per match.

Vogherese's goal record stands at 53% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Oltrepo's recent record shows 1 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Vogherese VS Oltrepo
0.63 Goals Scored 1.38
3.5 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
63% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Vogherese

(Home)
03 May
AC Milan U23
10 : 1
Vogherese
26 Apr
Vogherese
0 : 6
Caldiero Terme
19 Apr
Ciserano-Bergamo
6 : 1
Vogherese
11 Apr
Vogherese
0 : 4
USD Casatese
02 Apr
Chievo
4 : 1
Vogherese
Page 1 of 6

Oltrepo

(Away)
03 May
Oltrepo
2 : 1
Brusaporto
26 Apr
Villa Valle
1 : 3
Oltrepo
19 Apr
Oltrepo
0 : 3
Sondrio
11 Apr
Folgore Caratese
1 : 1
Oltrepo
02 Apr
Oltrepo
1 : 0
Real Calepina
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Folgore Caratese 34 19 11 4 58:27 68
2 USD Casatese 34 16 13 5 49:28 61
3 Chievo 34 18 6 10 52:43 60
4 AC Milan U23 34 16 8 10 62:37 56
5 AC Leon 34 14 11 9 44:34 53
6 Brusaporto 34 15 6 13 41:38 51
7 Oltrepo 34 15 8 11 38:36 50
8 Scanzorosciate 34 11 14 9 41:33 47
9 Villa Valle 34 13 8 13 43:46 47
10 Ciserano-Bergamo 34 11 13 10 33:31 46
11 Caldiero Terme 34 10 15 9 50:40 45
12 Real Calepina 34 11 9 14 42:47 42
13 Castellanzese 34 10 11 13 41:39 41
14 Breno 34 9 11 14 39:51 38
15 Pavia 34 9 10 15 36:47 37
16 Varesina 34 7 15 12 38:44 36
17 Sondrio 34 8 7 19 37:64 31
18 Vogherese 34 2 8 24 21:80 -17
Promotion - Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 (Play Out)