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Vogherese vs Pavia

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group B 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

41' Event
Monza E.
81' Event
Quaggio A.

AI Match Summary

Pavia in this Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Pavia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
Vogherese
15%
Draws
85%
Pavia
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Pavia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Pavia lately — more wins on the board than Vogherese.
  • Win probability leans Pavia's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Vogherese Clean Sheet 10%
Pavia Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Vogherese Pavia
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 2 9
Draws 6 10
Losses 22 12
Goals Scored 0.63 1.06
Goals Conceded 2.53 1.35
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 2.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 28, 2026 Serie D - Group B
Vogherese vs Pavia
0:2
Nov 15, 2025 Serie D - Group B
Pavia vs Vogherese
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Vogherese Compare

Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

Pavia Compare

Top Goalscorer Monza E.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Quaggio A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.33
Avg xA / game 1.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vogherese 10 / 100
Pavia 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Vogherese Pavia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick PAV Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Pavia let in goals in 61% of their last 31 matches.

Pavia lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Vogherese scored in 53% of their last 30 games.

These sides typically produce 1.00 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Vogherese VS Pavia
0.63 Goals Scored 1.13
4 Goals Conceded 0.63
88% Over 1.5 50%
75% Over 2.5 25%
75% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Vogherese

(Home)
03 May
AC Milan U23
10 : 1
Vogherese
26 Apr
Vogherese
0 : 6
Caldiero Terme
19 Apr
Ciserano-Bergamo
6 : 1
Vogherese
11 Apr
Vogherese
0 : 4
USD Casatese
02 Apr
Chievo
4 : 1
Vogherese
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Pavia

(Away)
25 Jul
Pavia
0 : 4
AlbinoLeffe
19 Jul
Pisa
6 : 1
Pavia
10 May
Breno
0 : 1
Pavia
03 May
Chievo
2 : 1
Pavia
26 Apr
Pavia
3 : 0
Ciserano-Bergamo
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Folgore Caratese 34 19 11 4 58:27 68
2 USD Casatese 34 16 13 5 49:28 61
3 Chievo 34 18 6 10 52:43 60
4 AC Milan U23 34 16 8 10 62:37 56
5 AC Leon 34 14 11 9 44:34 53
6 Brusaporto 34 15 6 13 41:38 51
7 Oltrepo 34 15 8 11 38:36 50
8 Scanzorosciate 34 11 14 9 41:33 47
9 Villa Valle 34 13 8 13 43:46 47
10 Ciserano-Bergamo 34 11 13 10 33:31 46
11 Caldiero Terme 34 10 15 9 50:40 45
12 Real Calepina 34 11 9 14 42:47 42
13 Castellanzese 34 10 11 13 41:39 41
14 Breno 34 9 11 14 39:51 38
15 Pavia 34 9 10 15 36:47 37
16 Varesina 34 7 15 12 38:44 36
17 Sondrio 34 8 7 19 37:64 31
18 Vogherese 34 2 8 24 21:80 -17
Promotion - Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 (Play Out)