Sport Picks

Stadium Background

VVOG vs Smitshoek

Netherlands Netherlands

Derde Divisie 2022/2023
Our Tip

Match Events

15' Event
Roossien L.
48' Event
Urban N.
50' Event
Urban N.

AI Match Summary

Smitshoek in this Derde Divisie 2022/2023 tie, finishing 2-4. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
VVOG
15%
Draws
42%
Smitshoek
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: VVOG

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • VVOG have won more games recently than Smitshoek.
  • Model gives VVOG a 43% chance of winning this.
  • VVOG have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Smitshoek, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 94%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 94%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79%
VVOG Clean Sheet 10%
Smitshoek Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric VVOG Smitshoek
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 9 8
Draws 3 6
Losses 18 18
Goals Scored 1.4 1.66
Goals Conceded 2.13 2.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.94 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 3, 2023 Derde Divisie
VVOG vs Smitshoek
2:4
May 30, 2023 Derde Divisie
Smitshoek vs VVOG
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

VVOG Compare

Top Goalscorer Roossien L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Hakvoort B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.49
Avg xA / game 0.97

Smitshoek Compare

Top Goalscorer Urban N.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Alkema D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

VVOG 83 / 100
Smitshoek 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
VVOG Smitshoek

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick VVOG Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Smitshoek's defensive record shows goals conceded in 91% of 32 matches.

H2H data points to 3.50 goals as a typical output.

VVOG scored in 73% of their last 30 games.

Away concern: Smitshoek has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

VVOG VS Smitshoek
1 Goals Scored 2
2 Goals Conceded 2.88
100% Over 1.5 100%
100% Over 2.5 100%
0% Over 3.5 88%

Recent Form & Match History

VVOG

(Home)
02 Sept
Blauw Geel
2 : 1
VVOG
10 Aug
Eemdijk
2 : 4
VVOG
03 Aug
VVOG
0 : 3
ACV Assen
03 Jun
VVOG
2 : 4
Smitshoek
30 May
Smitshoek
1 : 0
VVOG
Page 1 of 6

Smitshoek

(Away)
02 Aug
Barendrecht
2 : 1
Smitshoek
24 May
Smitshoek
1 : 5
VV Kloetinge
17 May
UNA
1 : 2
Smitshoek
10 May
Smitshoek
2 : 9
VVSB
03 May
Kozakken Boys
7 : 1
Smitshoek
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Smitshoek 5
VVOG 2
ODIN '59 7
Swift 2
Genemuiden 3
Excelsior 31 1
AZSV 3
Capelle 6
HBS Craeyenhout 2
Watergraafsmeer 6
Be Quick 1887 1
Kampong 4
SV Juliana 31 1
Baronie 2
AWC 2
RKAVV Leidschendam 1
Final
Smitshoek 3
ODIN '59 6
Genemuiden 6
Capelle 3
Watergraafsmeer 1
Kampong 3
Baronie 1
AWC 2