Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Waalwijk vs Roda

Netherlands Netherlands

Eredivisie 2025/2026 Mandemakers Stadion, Waalwijk
Fri, May 1, 2026
2 - 1
06:00 PM
Our Tip

Match Events

30'
van den Hurk A.
49'
Sub
Van den Buijs D. In: Deom J.
Out: Van den Buijs D.
52' Event
van den Hurk A.
Assist: Muller J. P.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 2-1, with Waalwijk advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Waalwijk
35%
Draws
29%
Roda
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Waalwijk

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

36% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Roda come out ahead of Waalwijk on wins alone.
  • Waalwijk are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Roda arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Roda, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.2%
Waalwijk Clean Sheet 20%
Roda Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Waalwijk Roda
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 10 11
Draws 12 9
Losses 6 9
Goals Scored 1.93 1.62
Goals Conceded 1.39 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 1, 2026 Eredivisie
Waalwijk vs Roda
2:1
Apr 28, 2026 Eredivisie
Roda vs Waalwijk
1:1
Feb 13, 2026 Eerste Divisie
Waalwijk vs Roda
1:2
Sep 19, 2025 Eerste Divisie
Roda vs Waalwijk
1:4
Jul 27, 2024 Club Friendly
Roda vs Waalwijk
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Waalwijk Compare

Top Goalscorer Uneken J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Roda Compare

Top Goalscorer van den Hurk A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Waalwijk 85 / 100
Roda 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Waalwijk Roda

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Waalwijk Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Waalwijk found the back of the net in 89% of recent matches (28 games).

Waalwijk has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Roda let in goals in 76% of their last 29 matches.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Waalwijk VS Roda
1.75 Goals Scored 1.13
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Waalwijk

(Home)
18 Sept
Waalwijk
6 : 1
Maastricht
11 Sept
Jong Ajax
0 : 2
Waalwijk
04 Sept
Waalwijk
4 : 2
NAC Breda
28 Aug
Waalwijk
2 : 2
Jong PSV
21 Aug
Helmond Sport
1 : 1
Waalwijk
Page 1 of 6

Roda

(Away)
18 Sept
Jong Ajax
0 : 0
Roda
12 Sept
Roda
1 : 0
Vitesse
06 Sept
Maastricht
1 : 1
Roda
28 Aug
Roda
2 : 2
NAC Breda
21 Aug
Dordrecht
0 : 1
Roda
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Roda 2
Waalwijk 3
TBD -
Willem II -
Den Bosch 2
Almere City 6
TBD -
De Graafschap -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
FC Volendam -
Quarter-finals
Waalwijk 1
Willem II 2
Almere City 5
De Graafschap 3
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
FC Volendam -
Semi-finals
Willem II 3
Almere City 0
TBD -
FC Volendam -
Final
Willem II 4
FC Volendam 3