Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Waalwijk vs Roda

Netherlands Netherlands

Eredivisie 2025/2026 Mandemakers Stadion, Waalwijk
Fri, May 1, 2026
2 - 1
06:00 PM
Our Tip

Match Events

30'
van den Hurk A.
49'
Sub
Van den Buijs D. In: Deom J.
Out: Van den Buijs D.
52' Event
van den Hurk A.
Assist: Muller J. P.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 2-1, with Waalwijk advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

9%
Waalwijk
11%
Draws
80%
Roda
Draw rate projection: 11% Favored: Roda

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

93% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Waalwijk come out ahead of Roda on wins alone.
  • Roda are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • Waalwijk have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Roda, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 81%
Waalwijk Clean Sheet 11%
Roda Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Waalwijk Roda
Matches Played 28 31
Wins 11 10
Draws 11 9
Losses 6 12
Goals Scored 1.5 2.13
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 1, 2026 Eredivisie
Waalwijk vs Roda
2:1
Apr 28, 2026 Eredivisie
Roda vs Waalwijk
1:1
Feb 13, 2026 Eerste Divisie
Waalwijk vs Roda
1:2
Sep 19, 2025 Eerste Divisie
Roda vs Waalwijk
1:4
Jul 27, 2024 Club Friendly
Roda vs Waalwijk
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Waalwijk Compare

Top Goalscorer Uneken J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Roda Compare

Top Goalscorer van den Hurk A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.94
Avg xA / game 1.18

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Waalwijk 10 / 100
Roda 74 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Waalwijk Roda

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ROD Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Waalwijk found the back of the net in 93% of recent matches (28 games).

Roda has conceded goals in 84% of their last 31 outings.

Waalwijk went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Waalwijk VS Roda
1.5 Goals Scored 2.13
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Waalwijk

(Home)
18 Jul
Waalwijk
2 : 2
FC Volendam
18 Jul
Waalwijk
1 : 1
Alemannia Aachen
11 Jul
Kozakken Boys
0 : 0
Waalwijk
04 Jul
Waalwijk
1 : 1
Jong AZ Alkmaar
30 Jun
Waalwijk
2 : 1
Rot-Weiss Oberhausen
Page 1 of 6

Roda

(Away)
17 Jul
Roda
1 : 0
Beerschot VA
10 Jul
Cambuur
2 : 1
Roda
03 Jul
Vitesse
1 : 1
Roda
30 Jun
VV Chevremont
0 : 10
Roda
01 May
Waalwijk
2 : 1
Roda
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Roda2
Waalwijk3
TBD-
Willem II-
Den Bosch2
Almere City6
TBD-
De Graafschap-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
FC Volendam-
Quarter-finals
Waalwijk1
Willem II2
Almere City5
De Graafschap3
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
FC Volendam-
Semi-finals
Willem II3
Almere City0
TBD-
FC Volendam-
Final
Willem II4
FC Volendam3