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Waitakere City vs Melville

New Zealand New Zealand

Chatham Cup 2019
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

This match ends 1-3, with Melville advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

64%
Waitakere City
15%
Draws
21%
Melville
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Waitakere City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Melville come out ahead of Waitakere City on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Waitakere City's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Melville arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Melville, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.4%
Waitakere City Clean Sheet 20%
Melville Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Waitakere City Melville
Matches Played 35 30
Wins 12 14
Draws 2 1
Losses 21 15
Goals Scored 2.09 1.6
Goals Conceded 2.06 1.73
Expected Goals (xG) 1.60 0.99
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 6, 2019 Chatham Cup
Waitakere City vs Melville
1:3
Aug 24, 2013 Chatham Cup
Melville vs Waitakere City
1:4

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Waitakere City 85 / 100
Melville 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Waitakere City Melville

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Waitakere City Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Waitakere City scored in 80% of their last 35 outings.

Defensive concern: Melville conceded in 80% of 30 recent games.

H2H data points to 4.50 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Waitakere City stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Melville
0 Goals Scored 0.88
0 Goals Conceded 2
0% Over 1.5 75%
0% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Waitakere City

(Home)
06 Jul
Waitakere City
1 : 3
Melville
11 Sept
Birkenhead
3 : 2
Waitakere City
28 Aug
Waitakere City
6 : 1
Three Kings
06 Aug
Waitakere City
3 : 1
Caversham
16 Jul
Waitakere City
3 : 1
Waitemata FC
Page 1 of 7

Melville

(Away)
04 Jul
Melville
0 : 1
Hibiscus Coast
05 Jul
Auckland United
7 : 1
Melville
06 Jul
Melville
0 : 1
Hibiscus Coast
10 Sept
Melville
2 : 3
Christchurch
19 Aug
Melville
3 : 1
Waterside Karori
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Roslyn Wakari 2
Caversham 3
Bay Olympic 3
Manukau United 0
Waitakere City 1
Melville 3
Christchurch 2
Nelson Suburbs FC 1
Napier City 4
Western Suburbs 1
Albany 1
Eastern Suburbs 0
Onehunga 2
North Shore 0
Miramar 1
Wellington Olympic 3
Quarter-finals
Caversham 1
Bay Olympic 2
Melville 4
Christchurch 0
Napier City 3
Albany 2
Onehunga 5
Wellington Olympic 4
Semi-finals
Bay Olympic 0
Melville 2
Napier City 2
Onehunga 1
Final
Melville 2
Napier City 3