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Wales vs Canada

World World

Friendly International 2025 Swansea.com Stadium
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Match Events

14'
Laryea R.
25'
Brooks D.
32'
Wilson H.

AI Match Summary

Canada in this Friendly International 2025 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Canada.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Wales
33%
Draws
27%
Canada
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Wales

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Wales haven't matched Canada's recent run of results.
  • 40% — that's where the model lands on Wales taking it.
  • Regular Friendly International 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 68%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 21%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Wales Clean Sheet 68%
Canada Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Wales Canada
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 12 15
Draws 10 8
Losses 8 7
Goals Scored 2 1
Goals Conceded 1.57 0.38
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.57 0.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 9, 2025 Friendly International
Wales vs Canada
0:1
May 30, 2004 Friendly International
Wales vs Canada
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Wales Compare

Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Canada Compare

Top Goalscorer Cornelius D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Wales 50 / 100
Canada 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Wales Canada

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick WAL Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Wales scored in 73% of their last 30 outings.

Recent resilience: Wales stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Defensive concern: Canada conceded in 50% of 30 recent games.

Games between these two average 1.00 goals.

Scoring Trends

Wales VS Canada
2 Goals Scored 1
1.57 Goals Conceded 0.38
86% Over 1.5 50%
57% Over 2.5 13%
29% Over 3.5 13%