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Wales vs Canada

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Friendly International 2025 Swansea.com Stadium
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AI Match Summary

Wales play Canada in the Friendly International 2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Wales averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.13 conceded. Canada averaged 1.57 goals scored and 0.8 conceded. In past meetings, Wales won 1, Canada won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on Sep 9, 2025 ended 0:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.19 for Wales and 1.29 for Canada. This points to a Canada double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Wales
30%
Draws
37%
Canada
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Canada

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Wales picked up more points recently compared to Canada.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.19 vs 1.29 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 66%
Over 2.5 Goals 45%
Over 3.5 Goals 27%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 44%
Wales Clean Sheet 19%
Canada Clean Sheet 12%
First Half Goal 59%
Second Half Goal 63%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Wales Canada
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 12 15
Draws 10 8
Losses 8 7
Goals Scored 1.6 1.57
Goals Conceded 1.13 0.8
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.57 0.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 9, 2025 Friendly International
Wales vs Canada
0:1
May 30, 2004 Friendly International
Wales vs Canada
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Wales Compare

Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Canada Compare

Top Goalscorer Cornelius D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Wales 34 / 100
Canada 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Wales Canada

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Canada or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +32%
4.00
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +15.2%
2.56
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Wales attacking → ← attacking Canada

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Wales scored in 73% of their last 30 games.

Canada let in goals in 50% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.00 goals.

Wales went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Canada lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

46 Points in last 5 53
2.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.00
1.57 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.38