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Wales W vs Montenegro W

World World

World Cup Women Parc y Scarlets, Llanelli
Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Cain H.
Assist: Holland C.
15' Event
Rowe R.
Assist: Cain H.
17' Event
Griffiths M.

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-1. This leg finished 6-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

74%
Wales W
20%
Draws
6%
Montenegro W
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Wales W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

74% / High Confidence
  • Attack-wise there's a gap: Montenegro W at 1.9 per game, Wales W at 1.87.
  • Win probability leans Wales W's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
  • Historical meetings favor Wales W, who have won 2 of the last 4 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Wales W have won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36%
Wales W Clean Sheet 68%
Montenegro W Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Wales W Montenegro W
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 12 12
Draws 8 5
Losses 10 14
Goals Scored 1.87 1.9
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.77
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 5, 2026 World Cup Women
Montenegro W vs Wales W
1:1
Mar 7, 2026 World Cup Women
Wales W vs Montenegro W
6:1
May 8, 2014 World Cup Women
Wales W vs Montenegro W
4:0
Nov 23, 2013 World Cup Women
Montenegro W vs Wales W
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Wales W Compare

Top Goalscorer Cain H.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Griffiths M.
2 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Montenegro W Compare

Top Goalscorer Kuc A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.94
Avg xA / game 1.18

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Wales W 95 / 100
Montenegro W 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Wales W Montenegro W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Wales W Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Wales W scored in 90% of their last 30 outings.

These sides typically produce 4.00 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Wales W stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Montenegro W's defensive record shows goals conceded in 77% of 31 matches.

Scoring Trends

Wales W VS Montenegro W
1.38 Goals Scored 1.13
3.13 Goals Conceded 2.63
100% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 75%
63% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Wales W

(Home)
09 Jun
Wales W
3 : 1
Czech Republic W
05 Jun
Montenegro W
1 : 1
Wales W
18 Apr
Albania W
0 : 1
Wales W
14 Apr
Wales W
4 : 0
Albania W
07 Mar
Wales W
6 : 1
Montenegro W
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Montenegro W

(Away)
09 Jun
Albania W
5 : 2
Montenegro W
05 Jun
Montenegro W
1 : 1
Wales W
18 Apr
Montenegro W
1 : 4
Czech Republic W
14 Apr
Czech Republic W
5 : 0
Montenegro W
07 Mar
Wales W
6 : 1
Montenegro W
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League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Wales W 6 4 2 0 17:5 14
2 Czech Republic W 6 3 2 1 18:8 11
3 Albania W 6 2 1 3 9:14 7
4 Montenegro W 6 0 1 5 6:23 1
Promotion - World Cup Women (Promotion - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Switzerland W 6 5 1 0 18:5 16
2 Turkey W 6 4 1 1 11:5 13
3 Northern Ireland W 6 2 0 4 10:9 6
4 Malta W 6 0 0 6 4:24 0
Promotion - World Cup Women (Promotion - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Portugal W 6 5 0 1 17:4 15
2 Finland W 6 5 0 1 15:6 15
3 Slovakia W 6 2 0 4 8:17 6
4 Latvia W 6 0 0 6 4:17 0
Promotion - World Cup Women (Promotion - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Scotland W 6 4 2 0 24:2 14
2 Belgium W 6 4 2 0 22:1 14
3 Israel W 6 2 0 4 10:20 6
4 Luxembourg W 6 0 0 6 1:34 0
Promotion - World Cup Women (Promotion - Play Offs)