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Warrenpoint vs Ballinamallard

Northern Ireland Northern Ireland

NIFL Championship 2025/2026 Milltown, Warrenpoint
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Warrenpoint in this NIFL Championship 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Warrenpoint.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Warrenpoint
20%
Draws
50%
Ballinamallard
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Ballinamallard

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

50% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Warrenpoint lately — more wins on the board than Ballinamallard.
  • Win probability leans Ballinamallard's way, sitting at 50%.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this NIFL Championship 2025/2026 fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Warrenpoint here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 64.2%
Warrenpoint Clean Sheet 16%
Ballinamallard Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Warrenpoint Ballinamallard
Matches Played 29 32
Wins 8 7
Draws 4 10
Losses 17 15
Goals Scored 1 1.09
Goals Conceded 1.52 1.44
Expected Goals (xG) 0.81 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 18, 2026 NIFL Championship
Ballinamallard vs Warrenpoint
0:1
Feb 24, 2026 NIFL Championship
Warrenpoint vs Ballinamallard
1:0
Dec 13, 2025 NIFL Championship
Ballinamallard vs Warrenpoint
0:4
Oct 4, 2025 NIFL Championship
Warrenpoint vs Ballinamallard
4:1
Feb 25, 2023 NIFL Championship
Warrenpoint vs Ballinamallard
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Warrenpoint 23 / 100
Ballinamallard 49 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Warrenpoint Ballinamallard

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick BAL Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ballinamallard has conceded goals in 75% of their last 32 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Warrenpoint found the back of the net in 45% of recent matches (29 games).

Warrenpoint went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Warrenpoint VS Ballinamallard
0.38 Goals Scored 1.13
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Warrenpoint

(Home)
11 Aug
Warrenpoint
2 : 0
Armagh
08 Aug
Harland & Wolff
3 : 0
Warrenpoint
21 Jul
Cliftonville
2 : 1
Warrenpoint
11 Jul
Crusaders
2 : 0
Warrenpoint
04 Jul
Limavady
4 : 1
Warrenpoint
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Ballinamallard

(Away)
11 Aug
Institute
1 : 2
Ballinamallard
08 Aug
Ballinamallard
0 : 1
Newry City
31 Jul
Ballinamallard
1 : 2
Bangor FC
18 Jul
Crusaders
0 : 0
Ballinamallard
11 Jul
Limavady
0 : 0
Ballinamallard
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Limavady 33 21 8 4 61:32 71
2 Annagh 33 22 5 6 54:27 71
3 Harland & Wolff 33 17 8 8 77:41 59
4 Newington FC 33 15 6 12 69:52 51
5 Loughgall 33 13 12 8 46:34 51
6 Queens University 33 12 11 10 43:42 47
7 Institute 33 13 7 13 47:43 46
8 Ards 33 12 7 14 50:46 43
9 Warrenpoint 33 10 6 17 44:50 36
10 Ballinamallard 33 8 10 15 36:52 34
11 Dundela 33 3 11 19 37:73 20
12 Armagh 33 4 5 24 28:100 17
Promotion - NIFL Championship 2025/2026 (Promotion Group)
Relegation - NIFL Championship 2025/2026 (Relegation Group)