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Warrenpoint vs Crusaders - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Northern Ireland Northern Ireland

Irish League Cup
Wed, Oct 21, 2026
VS
06:45 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The first leg ended 0-5. The second leg of this knockout tie follows. Recent head-to-head results give a strong hint here. Warrenpoint have averaged 1.27 scored and 1.57 conceded recently, against Crusaders's 1.46 scored and 1.54 conceded. Head-to-head, Warrenpoint have won 0 to Crusaders's 5, with 0 draws. They last met on Jul 11, 2026, ending 2:0. The numbers (1.94 xG vs 1.25) point toward Crusaders. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

58%
Warrenpoint
20%
Draws
22%
Crusaders
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Warrenpoint

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Crusaders come out ahead of Warrenpoint on wins alone.
  • Model gives Warrenpoint a 58% chance of winning this.
  • Crusaders arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Crusaders, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Crusaders have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Warrenpoint Clean Sheet 19%
Crusaders Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Warrenpoint Crusaders
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 9 13
Draws 5 5
Losses 16 10
Goals Scored 1.27 1.46
Goals Conceded 1.57 1.54
Expected Goals (xG) 1.94 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 11, 2026 Club Friendly
Crusaders vs Warrenpoint
2:0
Oct 3, 2023 Irish League Cup
Warrenpoint vs Crusaders
0:5
Mar 19, 2022 NIFL Premiership
Crusaders vs Warrenpoint
2:1
Jan 15, 2022 NIFL Premiership
Warrenpoint vs Crusaders
0:1
Oct 30, 2021 NIFL Premiership
Warrenpoint vs Crusaders
2:4

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Warrenpoint 85 / 100
Crusaders 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Warrenpoint Crusaders

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Warrenpoint Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.40 goals as a typical output.

Defensive concern: Crusaders conceded in 71% of 28 recent games.

Warrenpoint has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Difficult form: Crusaders registered 4 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Warrenpoint VS Crusaders
1.88 Goals Scored 1.13
1.38 Goals Conceded 2
75% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Warrenpoint

(Home)
17 Oct
Ballinamallard
2 : 2
Warrenpoint
10 Oct
Warrenpoint
1 : 0
Strabane Athletic
03 Oct
Warrenpoint
1 : 1
Annagh
25 Sept
Rathfriland Rangers
0 : 2
Warrenpoint
19 Sept
Institute
2 : 0
Warrenpoint
Page 1 of 6

Crusaders

(Away)
17 Oct
Ballymena
2 : 1
Crusaders
10 Oct
Crusaders
0 : 3
Larne
03 Oct
Carrick Rangers
4 : 0
Crusaders
26 Sept
Crusaders
2 : 1
Bangor FC
19 Sept
Linfield
1 : 0
Crusaders
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/16-finals
Annagh -
Limavady -
Armagh -
Harland & Wolff -
Ballinamallard -
Queens University -
Bangor FC -
Dungannon -
Carrick Rangers -
Newry City -
Dundela -
Moyola -
Institute -
Loughgall -
Newington FC -
Ballymena -
Portadown -
Cliftonville -
Rathfriland Rangers -
Ards -
Strabane Athletic -
Glenavon -
Warrenpoint -
Crusaders -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
1/8-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Quarter-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Semi-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Final
TBD -
TBD -