Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Warta Sieradz vs Suwalki

Poland Poland

III Liga - Group I 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

65' Event
Swiety L.
(Penalty)
72' Event
Krecichwost B.
90' Event
Drzazga K.

AI Match Summary

The III Liga - Group I 2025/2026 game between Warta Sieradz and Suwalki finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Warta Sieradz.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Warta Sieradz
20%
Draws
29%
Suwalki
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Warta Sieradz

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Suwalki have managed 1.67 goals a game lately — Warta Sieradz are scoring more at 2.
  • Model gives Warta Sieradz a 51% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Warta Sieradz here — 3 wins from the last 4 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.8%
Warta Sieradz Clean Sheet 17%
Suwalki Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Warta Sieradz Suwalki
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 16 16
Draws 7 6
Losses 6 8
Goals Scored 2 1.67
Goals Conceded 1.34 1.23
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 22, 2026 III Liga - Group I
Warta Sieradz vs Suwalki
2:1
Nov 8, 2025 III Liga - Group I
Suwalki vs Warta Sieradz
1:2
May 31, 2025 III Liga - Group I
Warta Sieradz vs Suwalki
3:2
Nov 8, 2024 III Liga - Group I
Suwalki vs Warta Sieradz
4:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Warta Sieradz Compare

Top Goalscorer Krecichwost B.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Drzazga K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

Suwalki Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Warta Sieradz 75 / 100
Suwalki 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Warta Sieradz Suwalki

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Warta Sieradz Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Warta Sieradz scored in 97% of their last 29 outings.

H2H data points to 3.75 goals as a typical output.

Suwalki let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.

Recent resilience: Warta Sieradz stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Warta Sieradz VS Suwalki
2 Goals Scored 1.25
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Warta Sieradz

(Home)
12 Sept
Lidzbark Warmimski
1 : 2
Warta Sieradz
04 Sept
Warta Sieradz
4 : 1
Olimpia Elblag
29 Aug
Swit Mazowiecki
2 : 1
Warta Sieradz
22 Aug
Warta Sieradz
0 : 4
Zabkovia Zabki
19 Aug
Troszyn
1 : 4
Warta Sieradz
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Suwalki

(Away)
12 Sept
Olimpia Zambrow
1 : 1
Suwalki
06 Sept
Suwalki
1 : 3
Lidzbark Warmimski
01 Sept
Suwalki
1 : 5
Termalica Bruk-Bet
29 Aug
Olimpia Elblag
1 : 3
Suwalki
23 Aug
Suwalki
0 : 0
Swit Mazowiecki
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Legia II 34 27 3 4 82:29 84
2 LKS Lomza 34 22 5 7 77:31 71
3 Warta Sieradz 34 21 8 5 64:34 71
4 Suwalki 34 20 5 9 64:43 65
5 Troszyn 34 17 6 11 75:47 57
6 Plock II 34 16 8 10 56:51 56
7 Widzew Lodz II 34 17 3 14 70:64 54
8 Jagiellonia II 34 14 7 13 46:45 49
9 Tomaszow Mazowiecki 34 13 8 13 64:55 47
10 Zabkovia Zabki 34 13 5 16 72:64 44
11 Swit Mazowiecki 34 12 5 17 51:66 41
12 MKS Mlawa 34 11 7 16 55:59 40
13 Olimpia Elblag 34 10 8 16 45:61 38
14 GKS Wikielec 34 10 7 17 40:54 37
15 Bron Radom 34 9 9 16 40:57 36
16 GKS Belchatow 34 9 7 18 50:76 34
17 Wasilkow 34 7 4 23 40:79 25
18 Znicz Biala Piska 34 4 3 27 27:103 15
Promotion - Division 2 (Main)
Promotion - Division 2 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)