Sport Picks
Waterford vs Derry City - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Ireland
Premier Division Regional Sports Centre, Waterford 
Match Events
9'
9'
O'Reilly A.
Assist: Clarke J.
11'
11'
O'Reilly A.
45'
45'
Clarke J.
AI Match Summary
The Premier Division game between Waterford and Derry City finished 2-2.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
27%
35%
38%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Derry City
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
27%
/ Low Confidence
- Waterford's 1.61 goals per match outpaces what Derry City have produced (1.54).
- Waterford are the model's pick here, at 60%.
- Regular Premier Division form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.4%
Waterford Clean Sheet 14%
Derry City Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Waterford | Derry City |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 28 |
| Wins | 10 | 10 |
| Draws | 11 | 9 |
| Losses | 7 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 1.61 | 1.54 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.39 | 1.32 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.81 | 1.63 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 14, 2026 Premier Division
Waterford vs Derry City
2:2
Jul 3, 2026 Premier Division
Derry City vs Waterford
2:4
May 15, 2026 Premier Division
Waterford vs Derry City
2:2
Feb 27, 2026 Premier Division
Derry City vs Waterford
4:2
Oct 17, 2025 Premier Division
Waterford vs Derry City
1:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Waterford Compare
Top Goalscorer McLaughlin E.
1 Goals Assists Leader Amond P.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.39
Avg xA / game 0.91
Derry City Compare
Top Goalscorer O'Reilly A.
1 Goals Assists Leader Duffy M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Waterford 57 / 100
Derry City 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Waterford Derry City
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Waterford Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Historical meetings average 4.60 goals per match.
Waterford's goal record stands at 79% scoring rate across 28 recent games.
Derry City has conceded goals in 71% of their last 28 outings.
Waterford went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Waterford VS Derry City
1.88 Goals Scored 2.25
1 Goals Conceded 1.75
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Waterford
(Home) 18 Sept
Shamrock Rovers
3 : 2 Waterford
14 Sept
Waterford
2 : 2 Derry City
11 Sept
Waterford
1 : 1 Dundalk
04 Sept
Waterford
3 : 0 Sligo Rovers
28 Aug
St. Patricks
0 : 2 Waterford
Page 1 of 6
14 Sept
Waterford
2 : 2 Derry City
11 Sept
Waterford
1 : 1 Dundalk
04 Sept
Waterford
3 : 0 Sligo Rovers
14 Aug
Waterford
2 : 1 Athlone
09 Aug
Waterford
3 : 1 Bohemians
Page 1 of 4
Derry City
(Away) 18 Sept
Derry City
1 : 0 Galway United
14 Sept
Waterford
2 : 2 Derry City
11 Sept
Shelbourne
0 : 1 Derry City
06 Sept
Derry City
4 : 2 Dundalk
30 Aug
Derry City
3 : 3 Shamrock Rovers
Page 1 of 6
14 Sept
Waterford
2 : 2 Derry City
11 Sept
Shelbourne
0 : 1 Derry City
21 Aug
Bohemians
5 : 3 Derry City
14 Aug
UC Dublin
1 : 2 Derry City
02 Aug
St. Patricks
1 : 1 Derry City
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shamrock Rovers | 32 | 18 | 8 | 6 | 52:32 | 62 |
| 2 | St. Patricks | 32 | 17 | 8 | 7 | 52:25 | 59 |
| 3 | Bohemians | 32 | 17 | 8 | 7 | 57:38 | 59 |
| 4 | Shelbourne | 33 | 10 | 13 | 10 | 47:46 | 43 |
| 5 | Derry City | 32 | 9 | 14 | 9 | 45:42 | 41 |
| 6 | Dundalk | 33 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 50:55 | 41 |
| 7 | Galway United | 32 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 42:48 | 38 |
| 8 | Waterford | 32 | 7 | 13 | 12 | 44:54 | 34 |
| 9 | Drogheda | 33 | 8 | 10 | 15 | 39:54 | 34 |
| 10 | Sligo Rovers | 33 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 25:59 | 23 |
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Premier Division (Relegation)
Relegation - Division 1 2027 (Main)
