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Waterford vs Dundalk

Ireland Ireland

Premier Division Regional Sports Centre, Waterford
Our Tip

Match Events

21' Event
Mahon J.
Own Goal
31'
Buckley K.
37' Event
Cann H.
Assist: Couto B.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Premier Division matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%
Waterford
35%
Draws
20%
Dundalk
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Waterford

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • Dundalk have won more games recently than Waterford.
  • Model gives Waterford a 45% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Premier Division form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.6%
Waterford Clean Sheet 16%
Dundalk Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Waterford Dundalk
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 10 12
Draws 11 8
Losses 8 10
Goals Scored 1.59 1.87
Goals Conceded 1.55 1.57
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 11, 2026 Premier Division
Waterford vs Dundalk
1:1
Jun 26, 2026 Premier Division
Dundalk vs Waterford
2:3
May 4, 2026 Premier Division
Waterford vs Dundalk
3:3
Mar 13, 2026 Premier Division
Dundalk vs Waterford
5:0
Sep 13, 2024 Premier Division
Waterford vs Dundalk
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Waterford Compare

Top Goalscorer Cann H.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Dundalk Compare

Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Waterford 84 / 100
Dundalk 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Waterford Dundalk

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Waterford Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 5:4
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Dundalk has conceded goals in 80% of their last 30 outings.

These sides typically produce 4.20 goals when they meet.

Waterford has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Attacking prowess: Waterford scored in 76% of their last 29 outings.

Scoring Trends

Waterford VS Dundalk
1.5 Goals Scored 2.63
0.38 Goals Conceded 1.75
63% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Waterford

(Home)
14 Sept
Waterford
2 : 2
Derry City
11 Sept
Waterford
1 : 1
Dundalk
04 Sept
Waterford
3 : 0
Sligo Rovers
28 Aug
St. Patricks
0 : 2
Waterford
21 Aug
Sligo Rovers
0 : 0
Waterford
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Dundalk

(Away)
14 Sept
Dundalk
0 : 4
St. Patricks
11 Sept
Waterford
1 : 1
Dundalk
06 Sept
Derry City
4 : 2
Dundalk
28 Aug
Drogheda
2 : 3
Dundalk
21 Aug
Dundalk
1 : 2
Galway United
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 St. Patricks 32 17 8 7 52:25 59
2 Shamrock Rovers 31 17 8 6 49:31 59
3 Bohemians 31 16 8 7 55:37 56
4 Derry City 32 9 14 9 45:42 41
5 Dundalk 32 10 11 11 49:53 41
6 Shelbourne 31 9 12 10 41:44 39
7 Galway United 31 9 10 12 41:47 37
8 Waterford 32 7 13 12 44:54 34
9 Drogheda 32 8 10 14 38:51 34
10 Sligo Rovers 32 5 8 19 24:54 23
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Premier Division (Relegation)
Relegation - Division 1 2027 (Main)