Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Watergraafsmeer vs Baronie

Netherlands Netherlands

Derde Divisie 2022/2023
Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
de Graauw N.
5' Event
de Graauw N.
30' Event
Mejres Y.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 4-3, with Watergraafsmeer advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Watergraafsmeer
20%
Draws
51%
Baronie
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Baronie

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

29% / Low Confidence
  • Baronie haven't matched Watergraafsmeer's recent run of results.
  • 29% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Watergraafsmeer have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Baronie, who have won 1 of the last 4 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Baronie have won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 54%
Over 4.5 Goals 24%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Watergraafsmeer Clean Sheet 10%
Baronie Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Watergraafsmeer Baronie
Matches Played 28 32
Wins 7 5
Draws 4 2
Losses 17 25
Goals Scored 1.29 1.13
Goals Conceded 2.25 2.97
Expected Goals (xG) 2.15 1.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 18, 2023 Derde Divisie
Watergraafsmeer vs Baronie
4:3
Jun 15, 2023 Derde Divisie
Baronie vs Watergraafsmeer
3:1
Jan 29, 2023 Derde Divisie
Baronie vs Watergraafsmeer
2:0
Sep 4, 2022 Derde Divisie
Watergraafsmeer vs Baronie
1:7

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Watergraafsmeer Compare

Top Goalscorer Santen B.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Bergwijn R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.07

Baronie Compare

Top Goalscorer de Graauw N.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Mejres Y.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.76
Avg xA / game 1.08

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Watergraafsmeer 29 / 100
Baronie 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Watergraafsmeer Baronie

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Watergraafsmeer Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Baronie's defensive record shows goals conceded in 97% of 32 matches.

H2H data points to 5.25 goals as a typical output.

Watergraafsmeer's goal record stands at 64% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Solid form: Watergraafsmeer remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Watergraafsmeer VS Baronie
1.13 Goals Scored 2.5
1.38 Goals Conceded 3.17
63% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 100%
25% Over 3.5 83%

Recent Form & Match History

Watergraafsmeer

(Home)
02 Sept
Dongen
2 : 4
Watergraafsmeer
30 May
Watergraafsmeer
2 : 3
NEO
27 May
NEO
3 : 0
Watergraafsmeer
07 Jun
Watergraafsmeer
2 : 2
Excelsior 31
04 Jun
Excelsior 31
1 : 0
Watergraafsmeer
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Baronie

(Away)
04 Aug
VV Kloetinge
2 : 2
Baronie
03 Jul
Baronie
0 : 5
NAC Breda
25 May
Baronie
2 : 1
HSV Hoek
18 May
FC OSS '20
3 : 4
Baronie
12 May
Baronie
3 : 4
Gemert
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
Baronie 6
Watergraafsmeer 5